2020 Charles Schwab Challenge Golf Bets and DFS Picks

Charles Schwab Challenge Analysis (Jump to Section):
Charles Schwab Bets | DFS Quick Picks | DFS Picks by Tier | DFS Head to Head Picks | Tournament and Course Preview

Alright, back at it this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial after a tough couple of months around the world.  The last winner on the PGA Tour was Tyrrell Hatton at the Arnold Palmer before The Players Championship was suspended in March.  Hopefully, we’re not too rusty with our DFS picks and golf bets and we can continue to hit on some winners, top 5’s and top 10’s.  Take a look at prior tournament pages for more detail on how we break things down and who we’ve liked in the past.

We’re headed to Colonial in Fort Worth, TX this week for a pretty stacked field.  See our Charles Schwab Challenge Course and Tournament Preview here.  Leading the way is Rory McIlroy followed by DJ, Rahm, Sungjae, Bryson, Jason Day and others.  Being a shorter but narrow course, accuracy off the tee and on approach (specifically 150-200 yds based on past years) will be huge this week.  We’ll also focus on how guys were playing before the suspended season and course history.

There are extra variables this week and it’s impossible to know what each player has been doing over the break.  You can assume guys like Bryson, JT and Rory are always grinding and some players have even been posting impressive practice rounds on their Instagram pages.  But, for everyone else, it’s a question mark.  The no-spectator event will give a different look to the players and to us viewing from the couch.  Keep in mind that while good finishes at Colonial should be taken into consideration, a much stronger field than usual makes those top-25’s a little less impressive. With all that said, you can probably find some leverage if you get creative with strategies, whether that means keying in on guys who have the most experience at Colonial or emphasizing one stat (SG:Approach for example) more than others.  Either way this field should lead to a great first event back for the PGA Tour.

Outright Golf Bets

DFS Pick One From Each Tier (DK Pricing)

$10k+ Tier

Rory McIlroy ($11,800) – Rory is the best golfer in the world.  Beyond that, he was playing great before the suspended season with finishes of 5^th, 5^th, 5^th, and 3^rd in his last four starts.  While he hasn’t had any starts at Colonial, he leads the field in SG: Approach, gaining 1.216 strokes per round this season and ranks near the top in GIR as well at 71%+.  Rory should be fine with the smaller, bunkered greens at Colonial as he’s gaining half a stroke around the green and is a solid putter. 

He’ll be highly owned as always but that’s not such a concern with such a great field to fill out rosters this week.  If you’re looking to avoid that ownership, you can’t go wrong with any of the top-4 priced guys: Rahm ($11,000) has the course history while JT ($10,600) and Bryson ($10,100) would give your rosters a bit more wiggle room.

$9k+ Tier

Webb Simpson ($9,800) – Colonial is a great course for Webb Simpson this week.  Par-70, plays a little shorter emphasizing accuracy, and smaller greens that will challenge your short game.  Heading into The Players, Webb’s last three starts produced finishes of 61^st, 1^st and 3^rd.  He has a few missed cuts at Colonial to go along with a 5^th in 2017 and a 3^rd in 2016.  Webb gains nearly a stroke on approach, hits GIR at 72%+, .72 strokes gained on the greens and is very good around the green/out of bunkers.  There are 7 par-4’s 400-450 yards this week and Webb Simpson leads the tour in scoring on those holes at 3.839.  He’s accurate enough off the tee where he shouldn’t get into much trouble and has a little more distance than other shorter course specialists.

$8k+ Tier

Marc Leishman ($8,900) – Leishman was also playing great before the break and played Colonial from 2011-2017 with top finishes of 13^th and 21^st.  He’s another guy who has been dialed in with his irons this season gaining more than a stroke per round SG: Approach.  He rates out well in the 150-175 yard approach categories, especially on par-3’s.  A little concerning could be Leishman’s accuracy off the tee where he’s hitting fairways at only 52%, but like a lot of these guys he’s long enough to set himself up with shorter clubs off the tee.  He is just average around the green and putting but we like his irons to give him some birdie opportunities this week.

$7k+ Tier

Joel Dahmen ($7,500) – Dahmen is an interesting golfer here as we saw him continue to play competitive golf over the break.  I think getting into that type of mindset will serve him well here.  He has four top-15’s in his last six starts showing his form was really peaking this season.  He gains .632 SG: Approach, is accurate off the tee (67%), gains strokes around the green and plays these type of par-3’s and par-4’s well. A concern could be his putting as he’s losing a little bit there each round.  One more item to note is that in 5 rounds at Colonial, he has shot under par in 4 of them (with one outlier 74 last year in the first round). 

$6k+ Tier

Bud Cauley ($6,800) – Down in this range you’re just hoping the guy makes the cut and can put together a little run on the weekend.  Cauley has made the cut in 3 of 5 starts at Colonial and made four cuts in a row before The Players Championship.  Cauley gains more than half a stroke on approach, gains strokes around the green and putting, and hits GIR at a 65% clip.  He has struggled with irons from 150-200 a little bit this season and can be inaccurate off the tee.  Let’s hope he’s fixed some of those things over the break and benefits from a shorter par-70 course.  Whether you go with someone like Cauley, Kang, or Lanto Griffin down at these prices, be sure to pair them with some more concrete names up top.

DFS Head to Head Player Picks

Whether you’re building a stars and scrubs lineup or a more balanced one, these guys will definitely be on your radar.  These are pretty close decisions and price points so it’s possible you roster both players (or none).

Bryson DeChambeau $10,100 vs. Justin Thomas $10,600

“Current Form” and Course History: Bryson probably has the edge on current form with finishes of 4^th-Arnold Palmer, 2^nd -WGC-Mexico, and 5^th-Genesis Invitational before the break.  His course history is not as good, missing cuts in three of the last four years and only breaking par in 2 of 10 rounds.  JT’s last three finishes were 6^th-WGC-Mexico, Missed Cut-Genesis Invitational and 3^rd-Waste Management.  Thomas has not played in a tournament at Colonial.

Shots Gained Stats: Both of these guys stripe the ball and are solid around the green. DeChambeau gains most off the tee (1.009) which might be limited on a course with some shorter par-4’s, gains .275 on approach, and .535 putting.  Thomas gains .597 strokes off the tee, .932 on approach, and .203 on the greens.

Wildcard Stats: Both players are around 70% GIR and 60% Driving Accuracy so not a big differentiator there.  Proximity from 150-175 yards was another area we highlighted this week (highest shot frequency from prior years tournaments) and JT is ranked 7^th on the tour vs. DeChambeau’s 52^nd.  These guys are super close, but the earlier stat of only 2 of 10 rounds under par for Bryson, JT’s SG:APP and similar ownership (JT probably a little higher owned) have me leaning JT here.

The Pick: Justin Thomas

Jordan Spieth $8,000 vs. Sergio Garcia $8,000

“Current Form” and Course History: Spieth has GREAT course history which will drive up his ownership this week: 2019-8^th, 2018-32^nd, 2017-2^nd, 2016-1^st, 2015-2^nd, 2014-14^th, 2013-7^th.  His current form this season has been poor with just one top 10 at Pebble Beach and no other finishes better than 55^th. Sergio isn’t a slouch at Colonial either with solid finishes in his last 3 starts here even if they’re not as recent: 2017-12^th, 2012-13^th, 2011-16^th.  On the other hand, Sergio has played well this season making the cut in his last five starts with two top 10 finishes.

Shots Gained Stats: Spieth just isn’t back to himself yet and Sergio only has 8 measured rounds so no surprise Sergio may look a little better here.  SG: Tee: Spieth (-.375) vs. Sergio (1.222), SG: Approach: Spieth (-.479) vs. Sergio (-437), SG: Putting: Spieth (.139) vs. Sergio (-.417).  Sergio is an all-time iron player while Spieth is struggling off the tee and on approach but still has the edge around the greens which will come into play this week.

Wildcard Stats: Sergio hits more greens in regulation and is more accurate off the tee as we’ve noted. In the few measured rounds, he’s also been near the top of the field in 150-200 yards proximity.  Spieth has been good from 150-175 but fades off on shots from more than 175 yards.  Spieth’s scoring average of 67.79 at this course vs. Sergio at 70.32 is tough to overlook, but he is going to be 3-4x more owned than Sergio and I’m not convinced everything was magically fixed over the break.

The Pick: Sergio Garcia

Matt Kuchar $8,500 vs. Shane Lowry $8,600

“Current Form” and Course History: Kuchar has a long history at Colonial with 5 finishes 16^th or better (2017-12^th, 2016-6^th, 2013-2^nd, 2011-16^th, 2008-9^th) while Lowry has never played in a tournament here.  Both players were in good form prior to the suspended season highlighted by Kuchar’s 2^nd place finish at the Genesis.  Lowry had a couple top-25s this season as well, with a most recent finish of 21^st at the Honda.

Shots Gained Stats: Lowry gains a lot off the tee (.639) compared to Kuchar (-.146) but as a long hitter it makes sense that the shorter course could minimize his gains.  Kuch has the slight edge in SG: Approach at .208 gained vs. Lowry’s .171.  Kuchar’s putting seems like a real differentiator here as he can get super hot at any time and is gaining .705 per round on the greens while Lowry is losing a little bit (-.031).

Wildcard Stats: Kuchar hits GIR at a good clip (67%) and is accurate off the tee if nothing else (69%) while Lowry is right there with him on GIR (69%) and a little less accurate off the tee (61%).  A couple random stats: Kuchar ranks 3^rd on the tour on 400-450 yard par-4’s (7 of those this week) and Lowry’s proximity from 175-200 has been great this year ranking him 15^th on the tour.  Kuchar will be much higher owned and deservedly so based on his course history, accuracy on shorter courses and being one of the best putters this year.

The Pick: Matt Kuchar

DFS Quick Picks to Consider (DK Pricing)

This section includes guys that stick out after a first glance at pricing and some key stats for this week’s tournament.  This isn’t necessarily a full lineup suggestion, but the goal is to highlight some guys who can fill out your player pools and other lineups.

Sungjae Im $9,300 – Sungjae was one of the hottest players in golf before the season was put on hold and no reason to expect otherwise coming back to Colonial.  He finished 3^rd at the Arnold Palmer after winning the Honda Classic and had a nice start to The Players as well.  The $9,300 tag just seems a little low for a guy gaining more than half a stroke (.518) on approach and is top 50 on the tour in proximity from 150-175 and 175-200 yards out.  He scores well on shorter par 4’s and also gains strokes with the putter.  He hits GIR at 69% but is average when it comes to accuracy off the tee.  He did miss the cut in last year’s tournament.

Colin Morikawa $9,100 – We’ve mentioned how important SG: Approach stats are this week and Morikawa checks that box.  He’s as consistent as they come gaining 1.194 (!) strokes on approach and hitting greens in regulation at over 70%.  His short to mid irons have been great and his form before the break saw him with 5 top-25 finishes in 7 starts.  Morikawa doesn’t have any starts at Colonial and has not been a great putter, losing .348 strokes per round, but maybe the bentgrass greens but if he putts well always expect a good finish.

Tony Finau $8,700 – This is as much of a price play as it is course fit for Finau, and with guys like Kuchar ($8,500), Leishman ($8,900) and Woodland ($8,800) in the same price range, it should help spread out that ownership.  Finau has four top 15’s this season, finished 2^nd at Colonial last year and has a scoring average of 68.94 over four events played here.  His SG:Approach is near the top at .895 strokes gained, he hits GIR at over 70% and pops up as a top player from 175-200 yards, especially on par 3’s where he ranks 5^th on the tour (three par-3’s 175-200 yds).  Accuracy can be an issue for Finau, but he has enough power to hit some shorter clubs off the tee this week.

Jason Day $8,300 – I like the $8,300 price tag enough to take a flyer on Jason Day.  A couple top 10’s and he can find himself priced a lot higher the rest of the year.  He wasn’t playing great before the break and had to withdraw from The Players, but I think he’s a guy who benefits from time off to get the body and mind right.  He hasn’t played here since 2011 where he finished 31^st, 2010-50^th, and 2009-4^th so we know he’s comfortable with the course.  Guys who can get hot with a putter and play well around the greens like Day can should do well on the course this week. He is losing strokes on approach and putting but with a player like Day that can switch in a heartbeat.   

Joaquin Niemann $7,400 – Niemann is an interesting player this week as he has dropped all the way down to $7,400 after three missed cuts in a row.  If you’re willing to overlook that and hope the time off gets him back on track I think his SG:Approach of .494 strokes and 70%+ GIR line up nicely for Colonial.  He’s played here 2 times before, making the cut both starts (31^st 2019, 8^th 2018) and has been top 20 on the tour from 175-200 yards, the distance players took the second most shots from last year.  He’s a little inaccurate off the tee at 56% driving accuracy which could get him into trouble with the narrow fairways lined with bunkers.

Tom Hoge $7,200 – We liked Hoge before the layoff and I’m going to stay on that train again.  He was top 15 at the Arnold Palmer and has four top-15 finishes this season.  Hoge has made the cut each of his three times playing the event where he has a 69.42 scoring average (40^th-2019, 42^nd-2018, 17^th-2016) and is priced in the low $7k range which makes him a solid play.  He is gaining .699 strokes on approach, gains .479 putting and benefits from some of the shorter par-4’s at Colonial.

*Take advantage of your sportsbook’s each way betting where possible. With each sportsbook varying in how many places they pay out, we provide winner, top 5 and top 10 bets.