2020 Travelers Championship Picks

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Travelers Championship Bets | DFS Quick Picks | DFS Picks by Tier | DFS Head to Head Picks | Travelers Podcast Round-up | Tournament and Course Preview

The back 9 on Sunday was some of the best and most exciting golf we’ve seen in awhile.  Whether it was Webb, Ancer, Hatton, or Berger draining putts or chips, everyone was firing on all cylinders.  In the end, Webb Simpson got the win shooting 5-under on the back (64 on the day) to set a tournament record at 22-under par.  Some numbers that stick out from the weekend are Koepka gaining 1.731 strokes off the tee, Ancer gaining 2.957 (!!) strokes on approach, Sergio 2.468 SG: Approach, and Webb Simpson obviously solid across the board with a hot putter.  We had a nice DFS and betting weekend as well, nailing the Webb winner (+2800), and hitting on Hatton and Ancer for top-5’s (+1000 each)!  Let’s keep that going this week.

Next up on the schedule is the Travelers Championship in Cromwell, CT at Par-70 TPC River Highlands, another pretty short course at 6,841 yards.  Last year, Chez Reavie won the tourney at -17 over Keegan Bradley and Zach Sucher (-13) and in 2018 Bubba was the winner (-17) over Paul Casey, Stewart Cink, J.B. Holmes, and Beau Hossler (-14).  All the top guys (besides Tiger) are going to be back this week including Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay.

We talked about some stats in our preview that we’ll be keying in on this week: Ball Striking (SG Tee and Approach), 150-175 yard approach, Par 4’s at 400-450 yards, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, Accuracy and as always, GIR and Putting.

Travelers Golf Bets

DFS Quick Picks to Consider (DK Pricing)

This section includes guys that stick out (bad and good) after a first glance at pricing and some key stats for this week’s tournament.  I’ll usually play this lineup in a single entry just to see how it does (and so I don’t regret it), but the goal is to highlight some guys who can fill out your player pools and other lineups.

Patrick Cantlay $9,800 – Cantlay was playing awesome before the break with 5 top-20s heading into the canceled Players Championship.  He didn’t play in either of the first two tournaments back, so who knows where his game’s at.  But, DeChambeau and Hatton have showed that a long layoff doesn’t necessarily make you rusty (especially for a guy like Cantlay who seems to opt out of more tournaments than most).  Cantlay finished 15th at the Travelers each of the last two years while posting scores of -8 and -10 so we know he can go low (winner will probably get to -20 again the way these guys are hitting it).  He gains a ton on approach at more than a stroke and is solid off the tee at .348 gained while hitting GIR at 75% and fairways at 67%.  He’s 4^th on the tour in par 4 scoring and 10^th in par 5 scoring so expect more rounds under par this week.  He could improve in the 150-175 and 200+ range but lets hope those are figured out after the time off.  We really like Brooks at $10k as well, so maybe an ownership play here depending on how that shakes out.

Dustin Johnson $9,400 – DJ is the 9^th most expensive player at $9,400 this week and I still think we’re getting a bit of a discount.  Last week, he was in the 60s all four rounds good for a 17^th place finish at -15.  He was great off the tee gaining 1.345 strokes and great with the irons gaining .787 strokes per round leading him to 75% of greens in regulation.  He did lose a little bit on the greens and around the greens but we know that can change week to week.  He hasn’t played TPC River Highlands often, placing 31^st in 2014, WD in 2009 and 34^th in 2008 with 7 of 9 rounds at par or better.  On the season, DJ is gaining .211 on approach and .722 off the tee.  While he isn’t near the top of the list for par 4’s in the 400-450 range, overall he scores very well and par-5’s and par-4’s, he’s great with short and especially long irons (200+ yard shots second most frequency after 150-175), accurate off the tee and hits GIR at a nice clip.  I think DJ is coming back into form and a price of $9,400 gives some lineup flexibility without losing much win equity.  I think Brooks ($10,000) is in a similar spot to DJ as they start to find their games before switching over to some longer courses in the coming weeks.

Tony Finau $8,200 – Finau just hasn’t found the early season form when he had a couple top 10 finishes so hopefully we get on him before his price jumps back up.  He’s had finishes of 33^rd (RBC) and 23^rd (Charles Schwab) the last two weeks.  At the RBC, he lost around -.218 strokes on approach but continued to gain off the tee at .421 but helped himself while gaining more than 1 stroke per round around the greens.  He’s played well at the Travelers in the past besides a missed cut last year (+2) with finishes of 17^th in 2017, 25^th in 2016 and 25^th in 2015.  In 14 rounds, he’s been even par or better at TPC River Highlands.  His season long stats may be skewed a little due to the great play early on, but he’s gaining over a half stroke on approach, .354 off the tee, and solid around the green.  He rates out well with his irons especially in the 125-175 range he should be hitting from this week.  Finau is 7^th on the tour in par 4 scoring which is big this week and hits GIR at 70% but can get himself in trouble being a little inaccurate off the tee (55%).  Hovland, Woodland, and Sergio should also have good weeks in this ~$8k range.

Marc Leishman $8,000 – Any time you see Leishman at $8k it would be crazy to not take a look. It’s the lowest he’s been priced all year seemingly because of one missed cut at the Charles Schwab.  He did not play last week so hopefully he worked out any issues in the swing.  Course history here is great, with 8 of 9 cuts made and 5 top 25 finishes including a win in 2012.  Leishman’s irons have been as good as anyone averaging 1.165 strokes gained per round while also gaining slightly off the tee.  He has had accuracy issues hitting just 51% of fairways, but hopefully the shorter course alleviates some of those issues.  He’s great from 150-175 yards and >200 yards which are the two most frequent distances players will hit from this week.  Would hope for better par 4/5 scoring and overall better form but Leishman is a very safe play at $8,000, just keep an eye on ownership.

Joaquinn Niemann $7,900 – Niemann is coming off a great week at the RBC Heritage with a 5^th place finish.  He was at the top of the field off the tee (.665) and on approach (1.84) while hitting nearly 80% of greens in regulation.  In his one start at the Travelers he finished 5^th, carding all four rounds under 70 to get to -11 for the week.  On the season, Niemann is gaining .66 on approach, .365 off the tee and hits GIR at 71%.  His proximity stats have been great from 125-200 yards (last week solid 200+ as well) and his par 4 scoring has been solid this year.  I think the increase of $500 week over week is fair, and Niemann can be the guy in this range to put your lineup over the top.

Doc Redman $6,700 – Actually a few guys in the $6ks this week I think are playable, but we’ll stick with Doc Redman here as he’s coming off two made cuts since the return to golf with finishes of 58^th at the Chareles Schwab and 21^st last week at the RBC.  Last week, Redman gained .539 off the tee, 1.955 on approach and hit 75% of fairways off the tee.  Redman has not played the Travelers. He’s been very good on the season as well, gaining .642 on approach and .381 off the tee, with his irons top 25 on the tour from 150-175 yards.  He’s also accurate at 68% while hitting GIR at 70%.  Lastly, he scores well on 400-450 yard par-4’s ranking 40^th on the tour.  Others guys down here that stand out are Matthew NeSmith, Brandon Steele, Max Homa and Cameron Champ (I know champ is a long hitter but he’s performed fine on shorter course).

DFS Picks by Tier (DK Pricing)

$10k+ Tier

Bryson DeChambeau $11,000 – A lot of people are high on Bryson this week for good reason, he was posting top 5’s before the suspended season and continued to do so after with a 5^th at the Charles Schwab and an 8^th at the RBC last week.  He has top 10s here the last two years and made the cut in the previous two.  At RBC DeChambeau hit the ball great, gaining nearly a stroke off the tee as usual and gaining 1.473 strokes on approach.  On the year, he’s leading the tour in strokes gained off the tee, 30^th in SG:App at .523 strokes, and .474 on the greens.  DeChambeau is also top 15 in par 4 and par 5 scoring and is dialed in right now. This tier pretty much belongs to Rory, but it’s not a leap to pick Bryson as the favorite this week.

$9k+ Tier

Justin Rose $9,200 – As always this range is pretty stacked so you’re splitting hairs when trying to fade the right guy.  With Cantlay and DJ highlighted as great plays below, Rose might be another guy to pivot to.  He’s playing great golf finished 14^th last week and 3^rd the week below.  Rose played some of the best golf in the field last week gaining .86 strokes on approach, .739 off the tee and .586 around the green.  He did struggle putting losing an average of .24 strokes per round.  He wasn’t played here since 2013, but does have four top 20s in his last four starts here.  Rose has gained pretty much across the board this year and should benefit from the two par-5’s and a lot of low-mid iron shots as he gets himself back into form.  Rose is another guy who might give you leverage this week as people pay up for DJ, Xander and Cantlay.

$8k+ Tier

Paul Casey $8,900 – At the top of this range, Casey still provides great value with one of the best course history’s in the field.  He has finishes of: 2019 – 5th, 2018 – 2nd, 2017 – 5th, 2016 – 17th, 2015 – 2nd.  He was playing solid before the break going 7/7 in making cuts with four top-25’s but had not broken into the top 10.  Casey’s 8^th on the tour in SG: App at .905, 16^th off the tee at .557 strokes gained while losing around the greens (-.428) and on the green (-.741).  He’s accurate off the tee (64%) and hits GIR at 70%.  With guys like Ancer/Morikawa above and Bubba/Reed/Im below the ownership might spread out enough to get leverage on a contender like Casey.

$7k+ Tier

Viktor Hovland $7,800 – Hovland has been a solid play the last two weeks with two top 25 finishes and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue.  Hovland was 12^th in the field last week SG: App at .981 and 7^th off the tee at .823 strokes gained.  He was accurate off the tee and his irons were dialed in as he hit 73% of greens in regulation.  Last year was his only start here and he finished 54^th. On the season, he has been dialed in from this week’s key range of 150-175 yards, hitting GIR at 68% and 66% of the fairways off the tee.  He continues to gain off the tee and on approach, scores well on par 4’s. Hovland seems to be finding his swing and can go low enough to contend at the Travelers if he improves on and around the greens.  Conners, Harman and Scheffler should also get some play as the course sets up well for them this week.

$6k+ Tier

Russell Knox $6,700 – Knox was playing solid golf early in the year with four top-25 finishes but has fallen off a bit since then.  He missed the cut last week but shot a bogey free -4 (67) in the second round so maybe he found something there.  It’s a good bounce back course as Knox won here in 2016 and has made 6 of 7 cuts overall.  Knox has struggled a little of the tee this year and isn’t super accurate at 62% but he still hits greens at 70%+ which is going to be huge this week as you need to make birdies.  His 150-175 game is great and he plays 400-450 yard par-4’s under par on the season.  At $6,700, you’re really looking for a made cut plus a possible low round on the weekend which Knox can provide.  Other guys down here include NeSmith, Steele and Henley.

DFS Head to Head Picks

Jason Day $7,500 vs. Scottie Scheffler $7,600

Course History and Current Form: In this matchup we’ll go with the seasoned 32 yr. old vet Jason Day vs. the new blood 24 yr. old Scottie Scheffler.  Scheffler has not played at the Travelers so no course history there and he withdrew from the tournament last week (non-Covid related as far as we know).  He finished 55^th the week before at the Charles Schwab and was playing well before the break with three made cuts and three finishes in the top 30.  Jason Day has very solid course history making 4 of 5 cuts with an 8^th place finish last year and a 12^th in 2018.  In the four cuts he’s made, he’s finished anywhere from -9 to -11 and overall has shot par or better in 16 of 18 rounds here.  Day has missed the cut the past two weeks and he was a bit inconsistent before the break as well.  We have seen flashes of him finding his game with a 4^th place finish at Pebble Beach back in February.

Shots Gained Stats: We’ll stick to season long stats as these guys haven’t really been in the mix since the return of golf.  As we’ve noted, Day has struggled a bit this year losing -.401 strokes on approach and gaining slightly off the tee at .054.  He’s continued to be one of the best around the green players in golf gaining .897 strokes per round, but has been shaky on the greens overall losing -.254 strokes.  Scheffler has had a nice year gaining .328 on approach and .663 off the tee.  He is losing a little bit around the greens and on the green as well.

Wildcard Stats: Day is usually a pretty consistent iron player and has been solid from 150-175 yards, ranking 83^rd on the tour in proximity from that range.  He does struggle from the second most frequent shot type at this course of 200+ yards, ranking outside of the top 200 this year. Day scores well on par 5’s so that could be an area where he gains on the field.  Scheffler is outside the top 100 from those key ranges of 150-175 yards and 200+ yards. Where he does stand out is 400-450 par 4 scoring (11^th), par 5 scoring (23^rd) and GIR at 69%.  Stats this year might lean Scheffler’s way, but at $7,500 I think the price and course history for Day is just too good to pass on.  I’m banking on him not missing 3 cuts in a row and like the upside he can provide.

The Pick: Jason Day

Sergio Garcia $8,500 vs. Sungjae Im $8,600

Course History and Current Form: Ok, let’s keep the young gun (22 yr old Sungjae) vs. the old guy (40 yr old Sergio) analysis going for this matchup.  Sergio has played at TPC River Highlands four times (dating back to 2002!) and made the cut each time, most recently finishing 2^nd in 2014 and 25^th in 2015.  After missing the cut at the Charles Schwab two weeks ago, Sergio came back with a 5^th place finish at the RBC Heritage.  He struck the ball well, gaining .392 off the tee and 2.468 per round on approach.  He wasn’t super accurate (59%) and but hit 65% of GIR which of course kept him in contention.  The one area he struggled was putting where he lost -.774 strokes (and missed some real short ones).  Sungjae has only played here once finishing 21^st last year. Sungjae came back to the Charles Schwab with a 10^th place finish but missed the cut at RBC after shooting +1 overall.  Sungjae was striking the ball great before the break and last week seems more of a fluke than anything as he’s only missed one other cut this season.

Shots Gained Stats: Probably a little inflated after his play last week, Sergio is gaining .442 on approach .983 off the tee but he’s losing -.729 putting this year.  Sungjae is right there with him, gaining .464 on approach and .55 off the tee while gaining .362 on the greens this year.

Wildcard Stats: Sergio is top 10 on the tour from 150-175 yards this year and 19^th from 200+ yards, two of the key distances this week.  He can be inaccurate off the tee (61%) but makes up for it with his irons hitting 65% GIR.  Sergio is also top 20 in scoring on par 4’s 400-450 (a lot of those this week).  Sungjae is also inside the top 50 from 150-175 yards and is better scoring on par 4’s (15^th) and par 5’s (38^th) than Sergio.  Sergio’s performance last week might inflate his ownership a little bit, while Sungjae is always a popular guy.  In this case, I’m going with younger guy who has been having an awesome season and is much more consistent of a player.

The Pick: Sungjae Im

Additional head to head analysis to be posted throughout the day.

Travelers Championship Podcast Round-Up

Top Tier ($9,400+)
Rory, Bryson, JT, Rahm, Cantlay, Xander, DJ

With Brooks and Webb dropping out, things at the top have gotten a bit of a shake up. Bryson and JT are playing the best golf out of this group and were talked up as the two guys most likely to win this week. Bryson is a monster and has good course history. While JT has been the best on approach from 125-150 and 150-175 and everyone should have plenty of wedges in their hand this week. Rory has to win to return his value which has a lot of analysts off him or at least underweight. DJ’s irons were great last week and he gained the second most off the tee in the field (second to Koepka). If he can figure out how to putt, he’s in play this week.

Most Popular: Bryson, JT, DJ

Tier 2 ($8,600-$9,200)
Rose, Morikawa, Ancer, Casey, Bubba, Reed, Im

Travelers is a Bubba track. We’ve all heard it this week but it seems like analysts are split on whether they’ll play him or not. Initial ownership projections had him over 20% but looks like he could be closer to 15%. Ancer hit all 18 GIR on Sunday on his way to a second place finish, at another short course, he was a popular choice. Analysts are predicting a bounce back week for Im after his worst putting performance and Justin Rose’s recent form has a lot of people buying back in.

Most Popular: Ancer, Im, Rose

Tier 3 ($7,600-$8,500)

Sergio’s play at RBC on Sunday has a lot of people buying back in on him. He still can’t putt and always carries a little risk but certainly has upside this week. The rest of the 8k range was a bit of dead zone for many analysts. Everyone seemed to be in on Hovland this week. After a great week last week $7,900 seems like a bargain for one of the most exciting young talents. Niemann is also at $7,900 this week after his 5th place finish last week. Hovland and Niemann were the most talked up in this range and will likely be two of the highest owned players in DK this week. Harman has played here a lot and is in good form and many analysts ready to buy back in on Scheffler after his week off.

Most Popular: Hovland, Niemann, Sergio

Tier 4 ($7,000-$7,500)

With a lot of talent between $7,600-$7,900, this range tended to get skipped over a bit. Max Homa at $7,000 probably got talked up the most because of his cheap price and pre-Corona form. After Homa, Kokrak is just a week removed from his third place finish at the Charles Schwab. Ryan Palmer got talked up after his 8th place finish and Varner is another bounce back candidate this week after missing the cut.

Most Popular: Homa, Kokrak, HV III

Tier 5 (Below $6,900)

Not too much analysis for these guys but Doc Redman should be the most popular play in this range. Other plays down here were Vegas, NeSmith, Rodgers, Cauley, Muñoz and Ryan Moore.