2020 WGC-Mexico Championship Bets and DFS Picks

WGC-Mexico Analysis (Jump to Section):
WGC-Mexico Picks | DFS Picks by Tier | DFS Head to Head Picks | DFS Value Picks | WGC-Mexico Podcast Roundup

Recent Winning Bets

– Webb Simpson Winner (+1400) & Bubba Watson T5 (+600) at Waste Management 

– Kevin Streelman Top 5 Finish (+1600) at Pebble Beach

– Joel Dahmen Top 10 Finish (+1400) at Genesis Invitational

Looking to keep the winner, T5 or T10 win streak alive this week at the WGC-Mexico Championship (and hopefully hit some bigger odds). The smaller field, no cut event provides for some tough odds across the board. It’s hard to not like the guys at the top but some more value as we work our way down.  Once you get to top 5s and top 10s you really have to find something you like about a long shot.  This week our picks took accuracy off the tee, under 125 yard approach stats, and shots gained putting into account.  As noted in the WGC-Mexico Tournament Preview, past winners have also had great scrambling stats in Mexico. Find additional coverage and tee times here.

WGC Mexico DFS Picks
One From Each Tier (DK Pricing)

$10K+ Tier

Rory McIlroy ($11,500) – Rory has the course history (2nd in 2019 and 7th in 2017), the recent form (two top 5s in the last 4 weeks), and if it weren’t for the triple bogey followed by bogey Sunday at Riviera probably would be coming off another win.

$9K+ Tier

Bryson Dechambeau ($9,000) – Can’t really go wrong in this range so may depend on where you can get leverage ownership wise, so sticking with the cheapest guy.  Bryson has been crushing the ball off the tee and got a 5th place finish last week while LOSING 1.592 strokes putting. Expect his putting to turn around a little bit and another strong finish.

$8K+ Tier

Marc Leishman ($8,100) – Leishman continues to strike the ball well gaining a little off the tee and gaining 1.309(!) on approach over his last 16 rounds. He hasn’t played well in Mexico, but the experience at altitude is a plus no matter the finish.  Would not expect Leishman to be overly owned here either.

$7K+ Tier

Tyrrell Hatton ($7,400) – This is Hatton’s first tournament back from a wrist injury that has held him out for around three months. He may fly under the radar here and he has solid course history with finishes of 19, 3, 10 over the last three years.

$6K+ Tier

Lanto Griffin ($6,700) – Good luck finding the right guy in this range. Based on recent form (3 top 15s in his last 7 starts), Lanto might be a little underpriced.  He’s also gaining off the tee and on approach while coming off a solid week of putting at the Genesis.

DFS Head to Head Player Picks

JT ($10,800) vs. Deki ($10,000)

JT has been a little all over the place but may be lower owned than usual coming off a missed cut. Deki barely made the cut but rode it to a 5th place finish all while losing 3.463 strokes putting.

The Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

Patrick Reed ($8,400) vs. Collin Morikawa ($8,500)

Patrick Reed has two missed cuts and three top 6 finishes over his last 6 starts and he gains strokes across the board.  Morikawa is a ball striking machine which could be impacted by the start on a course he’s never played before.  Morikawa is a popular player but he hasn’t had the results you’d hope for.

The Pick: Patrick Reed

Sungjae Im ($7,900) vs. Branden Grace ($7,800)

Grace has solid course history here with finishes of 33, 30, 32 over the last three years.  He’s coming off two missed cuts but is gaining .667 strokes on approach over his last 11 rounds.  Sungjae has never played here which could present an issue dealing with the altitude and is coming off a missed cut.  With that said, Im is a birdie machine who gets 4 rounds to pile them up.

The Pick: Sungjae Im

DFS WGC Mexico
Early Lineup Value Quick Picks (DK $)

Lanto Griffin $6800 (solid player for this price range)

Bernd Wiesberger $7400 (underpriced, ranked 23 in the world)

Graeme McDowell $7500 (hit or miss play)

Sungjae Im $7900 (birdie maker with 4 rounds)

Collin Morikawa $8500 (great ball striker, potential high ownership)

Sergio Garcia $8600 (great course history, recent form)

2020 WGC-Mexico Podcast Round-Up:
What the Betting Analysts are Saying

The Elite: Rory +600, DJ +800, Rahm +1000, JT +1100
Rory’s the best golfer in the world right now, DJ has the course history, JT has good value for an elite golfer with some success at the course, and Rahm will likely be the lowest owned for DFS.

Everyone loves Rory this week and it’s tough to argue. For DFS, there is strategy in playing any one of these four elite golfers. If you’re looking to place winner bets, you’re likely better off waiting until the tournament starts and hope to get some better live odds.

The Next Tier
Nine out of the ten podcasts listened to this week liked Deki in this tier. He lost almost 3.5 strokes putting last week and still only had one double bogey. He led the field tee to green and was very accurate off the tee. Winner odds are at +2000 and attractive enough for me to take. The only thing that might keep his ownership down this week in DFS will be the $10,000 (DK) price tag which may be a bit too high if you’re also looking to play one of the elite. When it comes to other DFS plays, Bryson DeChambeau was pretty popular in this range along with names like Xander Schauffele, Paul Casey, and Collin Morikawa.

A number of analysts shying away from Adam Scott ($9,800) and Webb Simpson ($9,600) due to their steep price tags. Both have been playing very good golf lately but similar to Deki, you’ll may have to play three guys under $7,000 if you pair one of these guys with a golfer from the elite range.

Keep in mind…
13 of the last 16 winners of WGC events have had odds of +2500 or lower. This isn’t good news for the golfers below but there are some really attractive odds for winner bets in the next two tiers of golfers.

The Next Tier
The most common name in this range was probably Sung-Jae Im. Analysts believe he’ll likely be chalky in DFS and as attractive as his $7,900 price tag, it may be a good place to pivot. Ancer was a close second to Im and got a lot of love with the tournament being hosted in his home country. Ancer has also been playing real well this year and there’s better than seeing his caddie ripping butts on the green. Other than Leishman there wasn’t much analysts were interested in playing in this range.

On the cusp of the next tier were guys like Byeong-Hun An, Rafael Cabrera Bello, and Tyrell Hatton all had upside. An just had a baby, Hatton is coming off a wrist injury but Cabrera Bello is the guy I really like here.

Long Shots & Punts
Carlos Ortiz was a popular play last week in the under $7,000 range and he’ll likely be a popular play again this week. Both he and Munoz will be playing in their home countries and both played pretty well last week at Riviera. Winner odds for both are at +15000, time to light a few bucks on fire.

Other interesting names down here to fill your Rory and JT lineup with include Christian Bezuidenhout , Scottie Scheffler, Robert MacIntyre, Matthias Schwab, Lanto Griffin, Victor Perez, Erik Van Rooyen, and Mike Lorenzo-Vera.

Come back throughout the week for updates and tournament analysis!