The Masters Picks

The Masters Analysis (Jump to Section):
Outright Golf Bets | DFS Quick Picks | DFS Picks by Tier | DFS Head to Head Picks | Tournament and Course Preview | Tee Times

The 2020 Masters in November rather than April may feel a little strange but the hype is still there with Tiger (+3300) the defending champ.  Tiger won his 5^th green jacket at the 2019 Masters finishing 13-under; beating out Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Xander Schauffele by one stroke.  This year, favorites include Bryson (+800), DJ (+900), Jon Rahm (+1000), Justin Thomas (+1100) and Rory McIlroy (+1400).  Some of the past winners: Patrick Reed (+2800), Bubba Watson (+2800), Adam Scott (+6600) and Jordan Spieth (+6600).

Augusta could play long if a little softer in November/with the forecasted rain but has always been known as a second shot golf course, so driving distance and Strokes Gained: Approach will be key stats this week.  Winners will get to at least double digits and maybe as low as 18-under like Jordan Spieth in his 2015 win; this means birdie or better percentage (and par 5 scoring) is still a factor even if we don’t expect a “birdie fest”.  Lastly, Augusta’s unique greens and bunkers require a strong around the green game and good putting so don’t discount consistency in those areas.

Outright Golf Bets

DFS Quick Picks

Dustin Johnson $10,000 – The price seems to good here as DJ is the 5^th priced golfer in the field coming off a 2^nd place finish last week at the Houston Open and a 6^th place finish back in September at the US Open.  He was second in the field in Strokes Gained Tee to Green last week highlighted by 1.304 gained per round off the tee and .796 on approach.  Our model ranks him 1^st in the field when looking at driving distance, birdie or better percentage, SG Approach, SG Around the Green and SG Putting since the restart of last season in June.  He’s ranked #1 in the world, bombs the ball, the irons are hot, he’s a great putter and has four top 10’s in his last four starts at The Masters with a second place finish behind Tiger last year.  Only issue here is ownership which could make DJ a very chalky play.

Adam Scott $8,900 – Scott is a tough player to gauge as he’s only played five total events since the June restart with a top finish of 22^nd at the PGA Championship to go along with a 32^nd last week at the Houston Open.  Scott’s irons were great last week gaining .978 strokes per round but he lost off the tee; and at the US Open he gained a bit off the tee and lost with the irons.  Sometimes, you’re looking for at least one thing to pop here and there so you know if it all comes together he’s in good shape.  He was 9^th on tour around the green last season and is a very solid putter.  In 18 starts at the Masters, Scott has one 1^st (2013), one 2^nd, five top 10’s and 10 top 25’s, so he clearly knows the course well.  He ranks 14^th in our model looking at driving distance, birdie or better % and Strokes Gained on Approach as the key stats.

Tony Finau $8,800 – Finau has started off well in the 2020-2021 season with a 24^th place finish last week at Houston, 11^th at the Zozo and 8^th at the US Open in September.  He’s gained off the tee, on approach, and around the green in all three tournaments while gaining putting in 2 of 3 contests (poor showing at US Open on the greens).  His game is in great shape and his length off the tee could be huge on what should be a softer course this week.  In two starts at the Masters, Finau has a 5^th place finish and a 10^th place finish.  He pops up 11^th in our model losing a little bit in the birdie or better category but that seems to be on the uptick lately. 

Jason Day $8,400 – Day had a nice little stretch from July to August where he had four top 7 finishes in a row but until last week’s 8^th place finish, he was struggling in September/October.  Last week, Day finished 8^th in the field in Strokes Gained tee to green highlighted by 1.129 strokes gained per round around the green, a key factor at Augusta.  Along with a good showing last week, Day has six top 20 finishes in nine starts at the Masters with a 5^th place finish last year.  He’s only 36^th in our model with his inconsistent play since June, but I don’t think Augusta is the time to jump of one of the best around the green players in golf.  Hopefully, surrounded by Deki, Fleetwood, Spieth and Fowler will depress some of the Day ownership this week.

Jason Kokrak $7,000 – Kokrak is 4^th in FedEx Cup ranking this year and 24^th in official world golf ranking, making his $7k price tag very appealing.  He finished 17^th at the Zozo in his last start, WON the CJ Cup the week before that, missed the cut at Shriners and finished 17^th at the US Open to kick off the 2020-2021 season.  He finished last season with three top 15 finishes as well.  Kokrak is a bomber off the tee where he consistently gains strokes (.562), average on approach (.054), average around the green (-.028), and has been great with the putter this season (1.546).  If you think the putting can keep up at a tournament Kokrak has never played in before (tough to learn these greens), he’s a nice bet as he was 4^th in our model dating back to June.

Sebastian Munoz $6,700 – Munoz has made all five cuts this season with finishes of 14^th at Zozo, 9^th at CJ Cup, 27^th at Shriners, 23^rd at Sanderson Farms and 59^th at the US Open.   He can be a little shaky off the tee and isn’t a long hitter, but is gaining .434 per round on approach and has been solid around the green and putting.  You’re not going to get many guys with those numbers at $6,700 and it shows in our model as he ranks 16^th overall.  Munoz doesn’t have any course history here and he’s another guy where ownership could pop, but you have to like the way he’s been playing if you’re looking to plug in some scrubs at the bottom of your lineups.

DFS Picks by Tier

Dustin Johnson 10000

DJ is the pick in the 10k and above range this week. DJ comes in this week at #1 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #3 in driving distance and #1 in the field for strokes gained approach. Johnson also ranks #2 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #14 for strokes gained around the green and #3 in the field for strokes gained putting. DJ is playing unreal right now, he’s the #1 golfer in the world and priced at 10K below four other golfers. He’s the pick to win this week.

Brooks Koepka 9700

Koepka is the pick in the 9k range this week. Koepka comes in this week at #5 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #16 in driving distance and #2 in the field for strokes gained approach. Koepka also ranks #19 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #19 for strokes gained around the green and #44 in the field for strokes gained putting. Brooks had an impressive closing round in Houston but what was most encouraging was seeing him hit fairways with his driver over the weekend. It’s going to be tough to avoid chalk at the top but Brooks should provide some leverage with win equity.

Tony Finau 8800

Finau is the pick in the 8k range this week. Finau comes in this week at #11 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #7 in driving distance and #23 in the field for strokes gained approach. Tony also ranks #33 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #22 for strokes gained around the green and #26 in the field for strokes gained putting. Finau had another disappointing Sunday but he’s played well at Augusta in his few starts. If he can be your second or third man in he has great potential to top 5.

Justin Rose 7700

Rose is the pick in the 7k range this week. Rose comes in this week at #23 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #54 in driving distance and #11 in the field for strokes gained approach. Rose also ranks #4 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #54 for strokes gained around the green and #16 in the field for strokes gained putting. Rose has been tough to get right since his surprising missed cut at last year’s Masters. He’s flashed with a few nice rounds though and knows the course, worth the risk in the 7k range.

Francesco Molinari 6700

Molinari is the pick in the 6k range this week. Molinari comes in this week at #12 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #24 in driving distance and #20 in the field for strokes gained approach. Molinari also ranks #20 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #2 for strokes gained around the green and #59 in the field for strokes gained putting. Molinari’s been waiting for this tournament for 18 months. Redemption is here.

Head to Head Picks (DFS)

Scottie Scheffler $7,800 over Paul Casey $8,000

Cameron Champ $7,100 over Gary Woodland $7,300

Matthew Wolff $8,500 over Tommy Fleetwood $8,600