2020 RSM Classic Picks

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It may have not been the most exciting week at Augusta, but Dustin Johnson showed why he is the world’s #1 golfer and is playing at a higher level than everyone else. The greens were receptive and we got to see how Augusta plays in the Fall. The conditions and lack of patrons likely made the week easier to manage for young guys and first timers which led to a few surprises towards the top of the leaderboard. It was a great week at the Masters and now we are on to Sea Island and the RSM Classic.

A pretty impressive field for the week after a major. Sea Island is home to a number of pro players and we’ve also got some good Euros showing up for the event. Webb Simpson is the tournament favorite at (+800) after a second place finish last year and a third place finish the year before. Other big names here include Tyrrell Hatton (+1600), Harris English (+1800), Sungjae Im (+1800), Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000), Louis Oosthuizen (+2200), Jason Day (+2800), and Justin Rose (+4000).

WDs: Sam Burns, Brian Gay, Bill Haas

Outright Golf Bets

Tier Picks (DK Pricing)

Webb Simpson 11200

Simpson is the pick in the 10k and above range this week. Webb comes in this week at #2 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #10 in driving accuracy and #77 in the field for driving distance. Simpson also ranks #3 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #37 for strokes gained putting and #14 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Webb is the highest priced golfer for a reason and currently playing at a level higher than everyone else in the field. His course history and high level of play make him an easy choice up top.

Joaquin Niemann 9100

Niemann is the pick in the 9k range this week. Niemann comes in this week at #23 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #113 in driving accuracy and #8 in the field for driving distance. Niemann also ranks #109 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #44 for strokes gained putting and #1 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Not the biggest fan of the 9k range this week and there is some added risk with Niemann coming off of Covid but I’ll play him cautiously. No one in the 9k range had compelling stats so I won’t be playing anyone too much from this range.

Brian Harman 8500

Harman is the pick in the 8k range this week. Harman comes in this week at #6 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #22 in driving accuracy and #53 in the field for driving distance. Harman also ranks #5 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #13 for strokes gained putting and #69 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. There are a lot of reasons to like Harman coming into this week. He practices at Sea Island, he’s had two top 10 finishes here, he played his college golf in the area and has also made his last 8 cuts never finishing outside of the top 40. He may not have the most win equity in this range but is a solid 8k play.

Austin Cook 7500

Cook is the pick in the 7k range this week. Cook comes in this week at #4 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #3 in driving accuracy and #85 in the field for driving distance. Cook also ranks #48 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #30 for strokes gained putting and #29 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Cook’s stats this week make him an appealing option in the 7k range. He’s one of those guys that I wanted to look at this week and then seeing how he compared to the field made him an easy selection. He’s got a win and a T11 in two of his last three starts here.

Michael Gligic 6400

Gligic is the pick in the 6k range this week. Gligic comes in this week at #14 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #81 in driving accuracy and #27 in the field for driving distance. Gligic also ranks #16 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #25 for strokes gained putting and #20 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Gligic is slowly becoming one of those guys that pops in the 6k range each week. He ranks in the top 30 in the field in all of our key stat categories this week.

DFS Quick Picks

Tyrrell Hatton $10,400 – Hatton probably won’t see a huge drop in ownership but at $800 less than Webb Simpson, it may be a good spot to start your lineups.  While he missed the cut last week at the Masters but a couple strokes, Hatton’s numbers through 14 measured rounds this season are great: .484 SG Tee, .767 SG App, .718 SG Putting.  He finished 7^th at the Houston Open (-7) and 3^rd at the CJ Cup (-17) in the past month and had six top 10’s last season.  Hatton doesn’t have any course history at the RSM Classic but at #10 in the official world golf rankings, he’s the clear #2 in the field even if the pricing doesn’t agree.

Jason Day $9,500 – Long term, Jason Day is a much better player than the guys who will garner more ownership in the $9k range.  He missed the cut last week, but finished 7^th at the Houston Open and played very well.  He’s consistently gaining off the tee over 17 measured rounds (.426 SG Tee), but is losing a little bit with his irons at -.027 SG App.  We know his around the green game and putting can be as good as anyone and at the low ownership he could easily find the top of the leaderboard.  He’s played at Sea Island once in 2012 and made the cut finishing 57^th at -3. 

Doc Redman $8,000 – 22 year old Redman seems to be putting it all together this season as shown by his 14 measured rounds: .539 SG Tee, .547 SG App, and .388 SG Putting.  He’s been shaky around the greens but with high GIR at this tournament I don’t see that coming into play this week.  His top finishes this season include a 4^th at Bermuda (-12) earlier this month and a 3^rd at the Safeway (-18) back in September.  Doc is middle of the pack in driving distance (297 yards) and accuracy (64%) but ranks 26^th on tour in scoring average at 69.9.  In his only start at the RSM last year, he finished 23^rd (-8) with a disappointing final round 73.  Not many guys have better ball striking stats than Redman and he’s an $8k guy that has the ability to finish top 5 week in week out.

Sepp Straka $7,600 – Straka is another guy who has had a nice start to the 2020-2021 season.  In 14 measured rounds, he’s gaining .225 off the tee, .651 SG Approach, and .582 SG Putting.  He ranks 31^st in total strokes gained on the tour this year.  Most recently, he finished 5^th at the Houston Open (-8), 21^st at the Bermuda (-7), and 43^rd at the Shriners (-12).  He has missed the cut both times shooting an 80 and 82 in the second round so I wouldn’t put much stock into that.  I think his 305 yards off the tee and hot putter can put him in play this week.

Harold Varner III $7,400 – This may be a chalky play but HVIII at $7,400 just seems out of place in this field.  In the 2020-2021 season, Varner is 18^th in Strokes Gained Total at 1.679 highlighted by his .843 strokes gained approach per round.  He’s been a little inaccurate compared to usual (57%) but his distance off the tee (305 yards) should help minimize any issues there.  In his starts this year he’s finished 15^th at Houston Open (-5), Cut at Bermuda (with an 80 in the second round), 13^th at Shriners (-17) and 29^th at the Safeway (-13); all good finishes for a $7k player.  HVIII has made the cut both times he’s played the RSM with a 23^rd place finish at -10 last season. 

Peter Malnati $7,100 – Alright so Malnati has brutal course history here playing each of the last four years and only making the cut once in 2016 for a 75^th place finish.  BUT, in his last four starts this season, Malnati finished 21^st at Bermuda (-7), 5^th at Shriners (-19), 2^nd at Sanderson Farms (-18) and 41^st at Corales (-6); so we know his game is in good shape heading in.  If he can avoid getting in trouble off the tee (-.366 SG Tee), his irons have been solid at .742 SG Approach and his putter can get pretty absurd at 1.745 SG Putting.  He’s probably a bit of a flyer here, but for a guy who was $9,000 just two weeks ago, this price tag looks pretty good.