THE PLAYERS Championship
March 12 – March 15
TPC Sawgrass – THE PLAYERS Stadium Course
Par 72 – 7,189 yards | Bermuda Greens
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
Defending: Rory McIlroy (-16)
Another week, another brutal course for the players as Bay Hill played as difficult as we’ve ever seen. Shooting a total of +1 got you into the top ten this week. Draft Kings lineups didn’t produce any top winners, but a lot of lineups that still paid off based on last week’s analysis (Dahmen, Sungjae and Hatton). The carnage moved guys in and out of Top 5s and Top 10s all day but we ended up nailing Tyrrell Hatton (+900) and Joel Dahmen (+1800) Top 5’s while just missing out on the Leishman winner ticket at +4000 and Gooch +1000 Top 10.
This week we go to TPC Sawgrass, and whether you buy in to THE PLAYERS being the “5th Major” or not, it’s a big tournament and will get a lot of attention. We’ll cover the course in more detail below, but the Island Green 17th is one of the most (in)famous par 3’s on the tour and can add to the pressure down the stretch. Unfortunately, Tiger is sitting this one out to take care of a sore back, but we’ll still be watching a stacked field, with players circling this tournament on their calendar every year. Tiger may be the only player in the top 25 world golf rankings to not play, so this includes: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson.
Be sure to check out our bets and DFS picks throughout the week!
TPC Sawgrass – THE PLAYERS Stadium Course
Par 72 – 7,189 yards
Par 3’s: 177, 237, 181, 137
Par 4’s: 423, 384, 471, 393, 451, 424, 302, 481, 470, 462
Par 5’s: 532, 583, 558, 523
At just under 7200 yards, TPC Sawgrass has seen winners of all types over the years, as noted below. Rory in 2019, Webb Simpson in 2018 and Matt Kuchar in 2012 show that you don’t have to be a bomber to stay near the top but you do have to be a solid iron player.
Whenever you have four par-5’s, it can’t hurt to look at par-5 scoring for each player as that’s where they can really cash in. Due to the shorter course, proximity stats in the 150-175 yard range will be key this week. 175-200 yards should be the next most common approach distance, with the shorter wedge game (50-125 yards) seeing its usual number of shots. This course has sand everywhere, with a lot of waste bunkers lining the fairways and pot bunkers placed exactly where players miss most often. For this reason, stats out of the sand (from all distances) are important, as well as around the green in general. Setting yourself up off the tee (shots gained off tee!) and shots gained tee to green should be a major factor this week, with shots gained on approach playing a role as always.
Scoring Holes: The 302-yard 12th hole is not your classic risk-reward, reachable in one par-4. While there is water to the left, it plays as one of the easiest holes every year, providing close to double digit eagles as well as some of the fewest bogeys per round (-.42 strokes over last two years).
As noted, all four par-5’s play under par and give up eagles. The 523-yard 16th hole will give up the most eagles with the longer 583-yard 9th playing a little more difficult.
Problem Holes: Unsurprisingly, the 237-yard par-3 8th hole plays as one of the toughest every year at +.23 strokes over the last two tournaments.
On the front 9, the 471-yard par 4th is the next toughest hole (+.17 over two years) producing a lot of bogeys.
Next up are holes 14 and 18 which are 481 and 462 yard par-4’s. Both holes have played a little over +.20 the last couple years. Hole 14 has sand and water up the left while hole 18 has water up the left the entire way, so hitting a good tee shot on these holes will go a long way in making par.
The Island Green: Rickie Fowler stuck one to 5 feet in 2015 to beat Kevin Kisner on the fourth playoff hole. Tiger Woods hit the “better than most” 60-footer in round three of the 2001 players enroute to the win. So, the hole has certainly lived up to its reputation and plays around even par (while also giving up as many double bogeys as any other hole). And even if you do get it on the Par-3 17th, your ball could end up in the water with the help of a seagull (Brad Fabel was allowed to replace a ball to it’s original spot).
Past Winners at THE PLAYERS Championship
2019 – Rory McIlroy (-16) def. Jim Furyk (-15)
2018 – Webb Simpson (-18) def. Xander Schauffele, Charl Schwartzel, Jimmy Walker (-14)
2017 – Si-woo Kim (-10) def. Louis Oosthuizen, Ian Poulter (-7)
2016 – Jason Day (-15) def. Kevin Chappell (-11)
2015 – Ricki Fowler (-12) def. (playoff) Sergio Garcia, Kevin Kisner (-12)
2014 – Martin Kaymer (-13) def. Jim Furyk (-12)
2013 – Tiger Woods (-13) def. David Lingmerth, Jeff Maggert, Kevin Streelman (-11)
2012 – Matt Kuchar (-13) def. Ben Curtis, Rickie Fowler, Zach Johnson, Martin Laird (-11)
2011 – K.J. Choi (-13) def. (playoff) David Toms (-13)
2010 – Tim Clark (-16) def. Robert Allenby (-15)
Winner Odds
Rory McIlroy +750
Jon Rahm +1200
Justin Thomas +1400
Bryson DeChambeau, Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Dustin Johnson, Sungjae Im +2500
Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay (!), Webb Simpson +2800
Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele +3300
Brooks Koepka, March Leishman, Tyrrell Hatton +4000
Golf Bets and DFS Picks to Follow