2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview

Rocket Mortgage Classic

July 2 – July 5

Detroit Golf Club – North Course | Detroit, MI

Par 72 – 7,334 Yards

Defending: Nate Lashley (-25)

Another solid tournament this week as we hit the DJ Winner (25/1), Streelman Top 5 (20/1) and Steele Top 10 (12/1) along with a bunch of nice plays in the DFS world!  Dustin Johnson was able to hold off a lurking Kevin Streelman (-18) following a short rain delay to win the 2020 Travelers Championship at -19 after Brandon Todd  (-13) gave up the lead with a triple on hole 12 and never recovered (felt bad for the guy, but nice to see it happens to pros too).  DJ actually lost a little bit off the tee this week (-.013) which is a rarity, but he was great on approach, gaining an average of 1.505 strokes per round (6th in the field).  He putted great as well, gaining 1.498 on the greens so watch out when he’s back in a couple weeks and can really let it fly off the tee.  A few other stats that stood out for players heading into the Rocket Mortgage: Doc Redman led the field in SG: Tee at 1.094; Viktor Hovland continued to play well leading the field in SG: Tee to Green (2.65) while gaining 1.96 SG: App (3rd in field); Sungjae Im surprisingly struggled with the irons this week losing -.51 strokes per round so look for a potential bounce back there.

This week we head to Detroit, MI for the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club.  The field is a little weaker than the past few tournaments as guys look to get a break where they can, and we have Bryson DeChambeau (+650), Webb Simpson (+1200), Patrick Reed (+1600), Tyrrell Hatton (+1600) and Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) as the favorites.  Detroit Golf Club began hosting the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2019 at the Par 72, 7,340 yard course, so longer hitters may finally gain a bit of an advantage (as opposed to prior few weeks).  Last year, Nate Lashley won easily at -25 with Doc Redman the runner up at -19.  Lashley stood out with his SG: App numbers gaining 1.388 strokes per round.

Detroit Golf Club is pretty open and guys will use the driver more often than in past weeks (hello Bryson).  The fairways are still narrow; guarded by water, out of bounds, and fairway bunkers, but as shown by Nate Lashley’s -25 last year, pins are gettable on the Donald Ross greens and you’ll see a lot of birdies.  Other notables in this week’s field include: Viktor Hovland (+2000), Sungjae Im (+2200), Rickie Fowler (+2800), Scottie Scheffler (+3300), and Tony Finau (+3300).  Haven’t done a deep dive yet, but seeing Scottie Scheffler with the same odds as Finau stands out right off the bat.

The Course

Detroit Golf Club – North Course | Detroit, MI

Par 72 – 7,334 Yards

Par 3’s: 167, 207, 233, 160

Par 4’s: 397, 453, 387, 461, 372, 425, 459, 393, 446, 455

Par 5’s: 635, 552, 555, 577

With only one year’s worth of results and a weak field, it’s tough to gauge what “type” of player will have success this week.  Last year, SG: App was one of the biggest differentiators for the top of the field with 7 finishers in the top 13 gaining more than 1 stroke per round on approach.  Shots gained putting was just as, if not more, important as the approach game with 10 players in the top 13 gaining more than a stroke per round.

As far as course composition goes, it’s pretty even across the board with par 3, par 4 and par 5 scoring all factors this week.  There are four par 4’s each in the 350-400 yard range and in the 450-500 yard range so those certainly deserve a closer look.  Three of the par 5’s are 550-600 yards and that’s where a lot of the birdies and even eagles will be made this week (the four par 5’s play as the easiest scoring holes). 

Players in last year’s Rocket Mortgage took the most approach shots from 125-150 yards, followed by 150-175 yards so we’ll be sure to take those into account for this week’s tournament.  Next up of course is the 75-125 yard range which will pop up a lot of weeks followed by 200-225 yards which will be key on the par 5’s. 

Lastly, GIR and accuracy off the tee have been big in the early going so no need to stray away from some of the basic stats heading into this week’s analysis.

Scoring Holes: As noted above, the four par 5’s played as the easiest scoring holes last year, with the 577 yard 17th hole #1 at -.491 strokes under par (14 eagles, 212 birdies) and the 552 yard 7th hole #2 at -.45 strokes under par (12 eagles, 210 birdies).  The best scoring par 4’s are short hole #1 (397 yards) and hole #3 (393 yards) playing -.152 and -.181 strokes under par respectively.  Hole #5 is a 167 yard par 3 playing the easiest of all par 3’s at -.143 under par.

Problem Holes: It’s no surprise the 233 yard par 3 11th hole played as the most difficult last year at .157 strokes over par, giving up only 38 birdies while leading the way with 98 bogeys.  The 18th hole is a 455 yard par 4 that makes for a tough finish as players were .113 strokes over par here making 89 bogeys and only 62 birdies over the course of the tournament in 2019.

Past Winners at the Rocket Mortgage

2019 – Nate Lashley (-25) def. Doc Redman (-19)

Golf Bets and DFS Analysis to be posted throughout the week.