Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Bets and DFS Picks

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Plenty of big names to pick from this week with 10 of 20 top ranked players in the field, led by #1 overall Rory McIlroy (+550/$11,800 DK).  Honda Classic DFS Analysis yielded some decent lineups, but not as much luck with the winner picks. Just means we’re due for a big week.

Bay Hill is a par 72 that plays 7400+ yards with four longer par 3s and four reachable par 5s. Water comes into play on a majority of the holes and there are sand traps littered across the course. This means shots gained off the tee and shots gained on approach are even more important this week as players need to go low if they want to contend (6 of 9 prior winners -13 or lower).  Besides the bombers who can get away with it, accuracy off the tee is another area we’ll look at this week. With all four par 3s playing near or over 200 yards (231, 199, 215, 221) and the par 5s giving up a lot of eagles, it makes sense to consider 200+ yard approach and par 5 scoring stats.

DFS Tier by Tier Picks (DK Pricing)

$10k+ Tier

Rory McIlroy ($11,600) – I don’t see any reason to get fancy here.  Rory is the best in the field, is priced accordingly and will be highly owned. He is leading the field in ball striking at 1.844 strokes gained over 11 measured rounds (.755 off the tee and 1.089 on approach). He plays great at this course with finishes of 6th, 1st, 4th, 27th, and 11th in five starts. He has top 5 finishes in each of his last three starts this season. His irons are great from every distance and of course he will take advantage of the four par 5s at Bay Hill. This is not a knock on the other four guys in this range and all of them are currently playing well. If you’re looking to pivot in a few lineups wait another day to see where ownership falls and you could potentially get Deki in a good spot.

$9k+ Tier

Sungjae Im ($9,500) – All of the guys in this tier, with the exception of Brooks who isn’t playing well, are solid starts. Rose ($9,000) and Im are the two that pop off the page a little bit but I’m going to stick with the current form of Im for this one. Obviously, Sungjae is coming off the victory at the Honda Classic and has been striking the ball as well as anyone with strokes gained off the tee and on approach near half a stroke each. His mid to long irons have been great, he’s fairly accurate, and he won the Honda barely even gaining on the greens.  If you need to save a few bucks or get away from high ownership, Day and Rose could be the next guys up.

$8k+ Tier

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,100) – Hatton is at the bottom of this range and if you’re using Rory at the top, you might not be able to use Finau ($8,900) or Stenson ($8,800). Hatton eased any concerns around his wrist injury with a great 6th place finish at the WGC-Mexico and all four rounds under 70. He’s got a top 5 at the Arnold Palmer in 2017 and has made the cut each of the last two years as well (29th, 69th). Due to the injury, we don’t have much recent data to go by, but Hatton is a great ball striker as shown at WGC-Mexico where he gained nearly a stroke off the tee and on approach.

$7k+ Tier

Joel Dahmen ($7,300) – If you saw the bets above or initial thoughts in the quick picks, you know Dahmen is someone on our board this week. Kisner ($7,800) and Ancer ($7,800) will be featured in a player vs. player matchup later on, but just going to stick with Dahmen in the low $7k range. He has only played the Arnold Palmer Invitational once and missed the cut. Dahmen’s recent form is very good with 3 top 15s in his last 5 starts and he’s one of the most accurate guys off the tee in this field. He’s gaining over half a stroke off the tee (.504) and nearly half on approach (.46) in 27 measured rounds. Putting has been the weaker part of Dahmen’s game, so if he can figure out the difficult greens at Bay Hill he should be able to put together some nice rounds.

$6k+ Tier

Sebastián Muñoz ($6,900) – Munoz definitely stands out a little bit in this range.  He’s gaining over a third of a stroke off the tee and on approach over 42 measured rounds putting him in the top 20 or so in the field.  While he has not played the Arnold Palmer, current form is good with three top 25s over his last seven starts. Munoz is pretty solid across the board in some other areas, which is a good sign in this price range: 61% driving accuracy, great par 5 and par 3 scoring, consistent across all approach yardages, and gaining at least a little bit in all shots gained areas.

DFS Head-to-Head Picks (DK Pricing)

Jason Day ($9,100) vs. Justin Rose ($9,000)

Whether you’re building a balanced lineup from the $8k and $9k ranges or looking for a second guy in with Rory, Day and Rose have to be considered based on course history alone. Day only has 7 measured rounds this season but is gaining .316 off the tee and losing a little bit on approach. He’s got top 25s at Bay Hill his last 4 starts, which includes a win in 2016, and recent form is good enough with a cut at Genesis, 4th at Pebble, and 16th at the Farmers. Rose has looked a little out of sorts lately with missed cuts at the Honda and Farmers and a 56th at the Genesis.  Rose has been losing strokes off the tee and on approach in the few tournaments we have measured data, which is uncommon for a player this good.  Rose has six top 15s and just two missed cuts in his last 10 starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which seems too good to ignore.  In the battle of former world #1s, I think it makes sense to lean on the guy with six top 15s here. Don’t expect either guy to be too highly owned.

The Pick: Justin Rose

Kevin Kisner ($7,800) vs. Abraham Ancer ($7,800)

Another interesting decision at $7,800 to fill out the bottom half of lineups between 29 year old Ancer and 36 year old Kisner (wow, did not realize Kiz is 36). A lot of guys down here, so ownership shouldn’t be a major factor. Ancer is gaining .264 off the tee and .488 on approach while Kisner is at .022/.146. Ancer has one cut in one appearance and Kisner has finishes of 23rd, cut, 2nd, cut, 49th.  Recent form is very similar as Ancer has a 12th, 6th, and 2nd over five prior starts and Kisner an 18th, 4th and 14th over five prior starts. So, what separates these guys? Ancer has been a little better on par 5 scoring and par 3 scoring but when Kisner’s putter gets hot, he can go real low and may have the higher ceiling.  In this range, I’m going to bet on guy with more upside but both are viable plays this week.

The Pick: Kevin Kisner

Matt NeSmith ($6,800) vs. Maverick McNealy ($7,400)

Once you get into the low $7k range, you’ll have to decide whether it’s worth it to spend the extra dollars between two guys who may have a difficult time making the cut. The rookie NeSmith has been a popular name this week for just that reason, he’s making cuts. With eight cuts made in a row, he has four top 30s largely due to his .447 strokes gained on approach (barely gaining off tee). Maverick is on an even better streak with eleven straight cuts made, including six top 30s while gaining off the tee and losing a little bit on approach. NeSmith has not played the Arnold Palmer but Maverick did place 46th in 2016. Both played well at this past weeks Honda and I wouldn’t be shocked if both made the cut this week.  Last week, they had similar ownership around 10-12% and would make sense they’re close again with NeSmith’s low price driving him up a bit more. Nesmith finished last week in 38th at +4 with rounds of 71-72-70-71.  Maverick finished last week in 11th at -1 with rounds of 70-69-71-69. 

The Pick: Maverick McNealy

DFS Quick Pick Analysis (DK Pricing)

Lineups should have a few more familiar names this week with Kisner ($7,800), Bubba ($8,300), and Leishman ($8,600) very affordable in the middle ranges. Rory is the obvious play at the top as always, but using Rory means you’ll definitely have to dip into the $7k range so we’ll include a few of those guys below. 

Rickie Fowler $9,300 – It’s been a tough stretch for Rickie, missing the cut at the Farmers a few weeks ago and again at the Honda last week (37th in between at the Waste Management). He’s a world class player who gains off the tee and on approach but hasn’t been able to put it all together this season. One thing in his favor is great course history, with 3 Top 15s and only one missed cut over 8 starts. There are definitely times where Rickie is as safe as they come in Florida, but at $9,300 and his usual mid to high ownership, it might be a good place to pivot this week.

Collin Morikawa $8,400 – Morikawa is making cut after cut and striking the ball as well as anyone in the field. He’s gaining .341 off the tee and 1.008 on approach; he’s accurate off the tee at 65%; and he takes advantage of par 5s. The worst thing you can say about Morikawa is that he can struggle on the greens, has only played here once in 2018 (64th) and will be one of the chalkiest players on board.  Sometimes chalk pays.

Bud Cauley $7,400 – A lot to like with Bud Cauley this week despite some inaccuracy off the tee (58%) and average putting at the Honda. Cauley has been losing a little bit off the tee (-.203) but did gain last week so maybe he found something there. He’s gaining .464 on approach over 31 rounds and improved that at the Honda as well. He scores well on par 5s and par 3s, which are important this week. Recent form is ok making his last three cuts and his course history at Bay Hill produced finishes of cut, 14th, cut, 4th. 

Joel Dahmen $7,300 – Dahmen has only played the Arnold Palmer Invitational once and missed the cut.  His recent form is very good with 3 top 15s in his last 5 starts and he’s one of the most accurate guys off the tee in this field. He’s gaining over half a stroke off the tee (.504) and nearly half on approach (.46) in 27 measured rounds. Putting has been the weaker part of Dahmen’s game, so if he can figure out the difficult greens at Bay Hill he should be able to put together some nice rounds.

Francisco Molinari $7,200 – Molinari is a strange one this week.  He is the defending champion and has great course history at Bay Hill with finishes of 1st, 26th, 7th, 9th, 17th, 5th, 34th. The problem is that in his current form he stinks (a 53rd and three missed cuts). He’s losing -.284 off the tee; -.451 on approach; driving accuracy is at just 53%; and he’s losing strokes just about everywhere else as well. Molinari could definitely turn things around as we head toward the Masters, but he’ll have to show it before getting into any lineups.

Charles Howell III $7,100 – CHIII is a similar play to Molinari if you want to go strictly on course history but his form has been a little better.  He has six top 25 finishes and has made the cut in 11 straight starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s losing a little bit off the tee and on approach, his mid to long irons haven’t been good from any range and he hasn’t done much since a 12th place finish at the Sony Open in early January. Tough to overlook those 11 straight cuts made at $7,100.

2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill CC
What the Betting Analysts are Saying

The Elite: Rory +500
At +500 Rory is in a tier of his own, he’s finished in the Top 5 in each of his last 5 starts win one win coming on the European tour. He won at Bay Hill two years ago finished sixth last year and fourth in 2017. He’s the favorite for a reason and +500 could be the best odds we see for Rory all week.

Early ownership projections were right around 45% and had many analysts saying they’ll be overweight. At +500 you can’t bet him so the only way to make money off a Rory win is by putting him in 70% of your lineups. Then hedge with winner bets on a handful of guys you like with good odds.

The Next 10 Golfers
Xander Schauffele was a popular pick in this range due to his odds and price tag. The betting market responded and Xander’s odds went from +2500 Monday night to +1800 on Wednesday morning. Fleetwood’s got good course history and playing well but it’d be tough to have much of Fleetwood if you have a lot of Rory. Fleetwood seemed to be the most popular pivot for lineups without Rory. Matsuyama was another popular play in DK due to his recent form. He’s not great putting on Bermuda but his ball striking is great.

Bryson was another pick in this range but not great betting odds and like Fleetwood, is tough to pair with Rory if you’re building lineups. Some talk of Adam Scott being a good play this week as well, good current form and had a few good rounds at Bay Hill in his last few trips.

Analysts expect Sungjae should have another good week this year after last week’s win and his third place finish at Bay Hill last year.

The Next Tier
The next range was probably the most talked about group this week. From Finau to Ancer there are a lot of quality options this week. Leishman and Byeong Hun-An seemed to be the favorites. Hun-An actually gained strokes putting last week and Leishman typically plays well in tougher weather conditions. Leishman also won at Bay Hill back in 2017. Tyrell Hatton looks like a good value play at $8,100 and his recent play suggests his wrist issues are behind him. Ancer was a popular pick for betting with winner odds at +8000 and T5 at +1200 and considered a real good value at $7,800 in DK. A few guys also like Finau in this range, it’s rare to see Finau in the 8K range.

Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose play well at Bay Hill and generally play well at courses together. A few analysts predicting, and hoping, to see Rose return to good form.

Other golfers mentioned: Collin Morikawa, Bubba Watson

The Next Tier
Not a long list of guys in this range like the previous. Kisner and Niemann were popular choices in the 7k range. Cabrera Bello and Carlos Ortiz both have decent course history and have been in good form. Cameron Champ’s game should fit this course, he’s long and apparently one of the best putters in the field on Bermuda recently. Maverick McNealy is in great form and a lot of analysts also on Scottie Scheffler this week. Sebastian Munoz sounded like a riskier play but still a solid option at $6,900.

Sixth Men
Not much analysis here, mainly guys who are playing well who could keep it rolling this weekend: Harry Higgs, Matthew NeSmith, Doc Redman, Robby Shelton, Xinjun Zhang, Talor Gooch

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*For Top 5 finisher picks, it’s common to place a winner bet with Top 5 each way if your book provides that option.