2020 Bermuda Championship Picks

Bermuda Championship Analysis (Jump to Section):
Outright Golf Bets | DFS Quick Picks | DFS Picks by Tier | DFS Head to Head Picks | Tournament and Course Preview

A weaker field takes us to the Bermuda Championship where Brendon Todd won last year at -24 over Harry Higgs (-20).  Port Royal GC is a short par 71 playing just over 6800 yards with three reachable par 5’s that will yield a lot of eagles.  The favorites this week are Will Zalatoris (+1100), Brendon Todd (+1200), Doc Redman (+2200), Harold Varner III (+2200), Denny McCarthy (+2800), Emiliano Grillo (+2800) and Kristoffer Ventura (+2800). 

Last year was the first year of the tournament (an alternate event to the canceled WGC-HBSC) so we won’t have a ton of history to go on this week.  The Masters coming up in a couple weeks has all of the top guys prepping, so not going to see them at an event like this.  We will see a ton of wind as the course is on an island so something to keep in mind but I’d still expect a birdie-fest this week at a resort course.  Other “notables” in this tournament include Charley Hoffman (+3300), Henrik Stenson (+3300), Luke List (+4000), Pat Perez (+5000), and Jason Dufner (+8000).

Outright Golf Bets

Tier Picks (DK Pricing)

Will Zalatoris 10900

Zalatoris is the pick in the 10k and above range this week. Will comes in this week at #2 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #7 in strokes gained on approach and #2 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Zalatoris also ranks #9 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #4 for par 5 scoring and #2 in the field for driving distance. Zalatoris will be looking to keep things rolling in Bermuda this week and is in a great position to compete for his first win on tour. HV III may be the safer play this week but Zalatoris should be lower owned and provide more leverage in SE and 3-max.

Kristoffer Ventura 9100

Ventura is the pick in the 9k range this week. Ventura comes in this week at #3 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #56 in strokes gained on approach and #5 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Ventura also ranks #2 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #2 for par 5 scoring and #11 in the field for driving distance. Ventura is a birdie maker who is long off the tee. He’s flashed in previous events with stronger fields than the one he’ll be up against this week.

Justin Suh 8700

Justin is the pick in the 8k range this week. Suh comes in this week at #1 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #1 in strokes gained on approach and #35 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Justin also ranks #1 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #1 for par 5 scoring and #1 in the field for driving distance. Suh had a T8 at the Shriners after a T14 in Punta Cana two weeks prior. He’s in great form and 8700 could be a bargain this week if he continues his strong play.

Wesley Bryan 7800

Bryan is the pick in the 7k range this week. Bryan comes in this week at #5 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #4 in strokes gained on approach and #26 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Bryan also ranks #10 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #12 for par 5 scoring and #65 in the field for driving distance. Bryan is another golfer in the field this week that looks a little under priced at first glance. He finished 12th at the Sanderson a few weeks back and has had a few nice tournaments since the restart. Bryan has top 10 potential in the 7k range.

Will Gordon 6700

Gordon is the pick in the 6k range this week. Gordon comes in this week at #8 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #64 in strokes gained on approach and #3 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Gordon also ranks #11 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #13 for par 5 scoring and #12 in the field for driving distance. Gordon’s been a little disappointing missing two of his last three cuts. He’s likely not the safest play down here but he’s got incredible upside for a guy at 6700. We’ll roll the dice again this week and hope Will’s ready to go.

DFS Quick Picks

Charley Hoffman $9,700 – Hoffman should be able to compete in a weaker field like this and he’s had some nice finishes this season: 6^th at Sanderson Farms (-14), 14^th at Corales (-10) and 56^th at Safeway (-7).  He’s gaining .507 off the tee, losing -.295 on approach and gaining .492 putting.  Last year, he gained .28 on approach so hopefully he can find his irons this week.  Hoffman plays aggressive as shown by his 12^th on tour rank in birdie or better percentage last season but it can get him in trouble with bogeys as well (108^th in bogey avoidance).  He’s not long off the tee so that should help with a shorter track like Port Royal.  Hoffman rounds out our top 25 in this week’s model ranking SG Approach, SG Tee, and Birdie or Better Percentage since the restart of last season (June).

Cameron Tringale $9,200 – Tringale has opened the season finishing 19^th at Shriners (-16), 37^th at Sanderson Farms (-6) and missed the cut at the Safeway (-3).  He’s been pretty average across the board in those three tournaments, but last season ranked 8^th on tour in SG Approach at .632. He hits it over 300 off the tee, was 65^th on tour in birdie or better percentage last year and 14^th on tour in par 4 scoring (best in the field this week).  In a model ranking SG Approach, SG Tee, and Birdie or Better Percentage since the restart of last season (June), Tringale ranks top 20 in the field this week and is an elite putter on top of that.

Kristoffer Ventura $9,100 – Ventura has been great this season even with a missed cut at the Shriners (-5) a couple weeks ago, finishing 6^th at Sanderson Farms (-14), 52^nd at Corales (-5) and 7^th at Safeway (-17).  On the year, he’s gaining .687 off the tee, losing -.427 on approach, gaining .559 around the green and gaining 1.042 putting.  Last season, Ventura has similar issues on approach but his putter was just as good which will be huge in a week where the winners should get beyond 20-under par.  He’s long off the tee and has destroyed shorter par 4’s (lots of them this week) in the past.  He’s top 3 in our model keying in on off the tee, approach and birdie or better percentage numbers since the restart of last season.

Luke List $8,400 –  List hasn’t been great to start this season missing the cut in the Shriners (-2) and at Sanderson Farms (-3), but he does have an 8^th place finish at Corales at the end of September going 12-under in the tournament.  He’s been great off the tee but seems to have lost his irons a little bit the past few tournaments.  The good news is list gained .387 off the thee last season and .3 on approach, so we know his iron game is in there somewhere.  A concern with List is his putting as last year he lost -.504 per round (not good).  He’s a long hitter (308 yds/drive) who should tear up the par 4’s and 5’s this week, and has a better track record than most of this field.  He’s top 10 in a couple of the models we’ve run this week as well.

Cameron Percy $7,000 – Percy has had a solid start to the 2020-2021 season finishing 59^th at Sanderson Farms (-1), 8^th at Corales (-1) and 23^rd at the Safeway Open (-14).  He’s struggled a little off the tee in those three tournaments losing -.413 strokes per round but has been great with his irons gaining .677 strokes per round on approach.  Last season, Percy lost -.078 off the tee per round (128^th on tour) but gained .482 on approach (22^nd on tour).  He’s a little short off the tee at 295 yards but his accuracy and irons kept him ranked 30^th on tour in GIR at 69.63% last year.  He’s pretty average with the flatstick ranking 111^th on tour last season.  Percy finished 48^th here last season.

Michael Gligic – $6,500 – Gligic has had a nice start to the season as well, finishing 27^th at Shriners (-14), 37^th at Sanderson Farms (-6), CUT at Corales (+1) and 14^th at the Safeway (-15).  He finished 53^rd here last season.  On the year, he’s gaining .432 off the tee, losing -.057 on approach and gaining .746 putting.  Last season, Gligic was pretty average across the board but dominated shorter par 4’s which he can take advantage of this week.  His average numbers rank out well this week putting him top 20 in models looking at the last 5 months, and his hot putter could make him a nice play in this range.