2020 Corales Puntacana Championship Picks

Corales Puntacana Championship Analysis (Jump to Section):
Outright Golf Bets | DFS Quick Picks | DFS Picks by Tier | DFS Head to Head Picks | Podcast Round-up | Tournament and Course Preview

Betting went well this past weekend hitting Bryson DeChambeau winner (+2500) and Matthew Wolff/Harris English top 5’s (+1200 each). This week, we head to Punta Cana, Dominican Republic for the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship at Corales Golf Club, a long par-72 – 7,670 yard course.  This is the fifth year of the tournament (2^nd on PGA Tour as previously a Web.com event), and the weaker field we’ll see is due to a competing WGC event that has since been canceled (plus the US Open last week).  Favorites this week are: Will Zalatoris (+1200), Corey Conners (+1400), Mackenzie Hughes (+1600), Adam Long (+2000), and Sam Burns (+2000).

Since this tournament is a lower end event held in the Dominican Republic, we don’t seem to get the same shot data as other tournaments which focuses analysis on some of the more standard stats across the board.  The four par 5’s stick out right away this week so we’ll be sure to look at par 5 scoring as a key spot players can gain on the field.  The par 4’s range from under 400 yards to over 500 yards this week with no real yardage sticking out.  While the par 3’s will all play over 200, they range all the way up to hole #11 at 265 yards so tough to pick a true key distance there.

Strokes gained tee to green always has a strong correlation with results which is why we’ll be focusing there this week.  Next up in a tournament where birdies can be had is birdie or better percentage.  At 7,670 yards, this course is long and driving distance will be a huge advantage as long as guys aren’t too erratic off the tee.  Lastly, shots gained putting will help highlight the top putters in the game who can make birdies in bunches.

Outright Golf Bets

DFS Quick Picks (DK Pricing)

Will Zalatoris $10,900 – The top priced golfer this week, the 24 year old Zalatoris is coming off an impressive T6 (+5) at the U.S. Open.  He played 16 events on the Korn Ferry Tour in the 2020 season with ten top 10’s including a win in July.  Last week, Zalatoris gained .711 strokes per round off the tee, 1.635 SG Approach, .383 SG Around the Green and .108 SG Putting.  We know his game’s in good shape and he can bomb it off the tee, so I don’t mind Zalatoris in a spot where he might get overlooked as an unknown. He’s been great for awhile with accolades like 2014 US Junior Amateur champion and 2017 First-Team All American at Wake Forest University.

Xinjun Zhang $8,400 – Zhang recently had a nice 14^th place finish at the Safeway Open where he gained .295 off the tee, 1.194 SG Approach, -.048 Around the green and .445 SG Putting.  Last season on the tour he made just 13 of 25 cuts but that did include three top 10 finishes.  He didn’t lose strokes in any category for the 2020 season and is top ten in the field in birdie or better percentage.  Zhang is a little short off the tee at 294 yards/drive and will make some bogeys but his consistent game should bode well in a weaker field.

James Hahn $7,700 – Hahn is another guy with a nice showing at the Safeway finishing T9 gaining across the board and having a hot putter (key this week): .339 SG Tee, .503 SG App, .129 SG AtG and 1.165 SG Putting.  He had missed the cut in each start since the restart so maybe the Safeway gets him back on track.  Last season he gained in each category besides losing a little putting, and he was top 10 on the tour in par 5 scoring.

Jhonnathan Vegas $7,700 – As with many of these players, Vegas played in the Safeway Open but his irons (-.932 per round) kept him from finishing any better than 52^nd.  He gained .355 off the tee, .180 around the green and .534 putting per round so if the irons can get going he should be fine.  Vegas did struggle putting last season losing -.347 per round but he hits it long at 309 yards/drive, scores great on par 5’s and is near the top of this field in birdie or better percentage (23.22%).   

Will Gordon $7,600 – A lot of guys in the $7k range this week should lower ownership, but Will Gordon will probably pop up in a lot of models. Gordon is known as a bomber at 309 yards/drive last season and will gain off the tee, his issues have been the irons and putter as shown in his most recent start at the Safeway Open: 1.563 gained off the tee, -.791 lost on approach, -.960 lost around the green and -.177 lost putting.  With the distance does come birdies as he ranks 8^th in the field in birdie or better percentage (23.44%).  He put together some great golf in June finishing 3^rd at the Travelers and if Gordon can get anything going with his irons he should be able to put together another decent week at just $7,600.  One last nugget on Gordon is that his PGA profile says he loves to visit the Caribbean and I’ll take any connection we can get this week.

Seamus Power $7,500 – We’ve heard Power’s name in a few spots this week so be sure to check his ownership before locking him in.  What stands out for him this week is that he leads the field (and was 6^th on tour) in 2020 birdie or better percentage (25.17%).  Power is long enough at 305 yards/drive, scores well across all hole types (especially par 5’s), and was consistent last season besides some trouble with the irons: .124 strokes gained off the tee, -.358 SG approach, .433 SG AtG and .108 SG Putting.  Maybe it’s just luck of the Irish (sorry, had to fit that in), but I think leaning toward birdie makers is a great strategy in a lesser known field.

DFS Picks by Tier (DK Pricing)

$10k Tier

Sam Burns $10,100 – Burns finished T7 at the Safeway Open and only one of those six golfers who finished ahead of him are in this field. He’s in good form and proved at the Safeway he could putt well off Bermuda. His stats pop across all of the major categories as he’s top 11 in the field in par 5 scoring, birdie or better percent, SG T2G and SG BS. He was T13 at the Wyndham and T17 at Workday competing in much stronger fields. Burns should have a pretty low floor this week and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the mix on Sunday.

$9k Tier

Kristoffer Ventura $9,200 – Ventura popped in a few different models this week and one of my favorite plays this week. $9,200 seems like a bargain looking at the names directly above him and Ventura’s another guy who is competing on Sunday. He finished T7 at the Safeway and T37 at Wyndham after missing the cut at the 3M. He did finish T21 at the Rocket Mortgage in a similar but stronger field than he’ll be up against this week. Ventura finished number one in my most recent model ranking top 3 in the field in par 5 scoring and birdie or better percent. He wasa top 10 in approach and our combined driving model and top 20 in ball striking and SG T2G.

$8k Tier

Luke List $8,700 – I like List here but am not overly thrilled with the $8k range this week. List had a T10 at the Memorial and a T21 at the Rocket Mortgage but not too much else notable. He has been able to make a lot of cuts since the restart but finished T65 at the Safeway after a rough Sunday. He’s top 3 in the field in SG T2G and SG BS. He also comes in top 25 in the field in approach and par 5 scoring. List has issues with his putter but if can continue to strike it well, he should have a good week.

$7k Tier

Chris Baker $7,500 – Baker was a popular $6k option at the Safeway but disappointed many when he missed the cut on the number at -4. He gets a bump in this field of $1,100 but still seems like a good play in the $7k with the way he’s been hitting the ball. Baker’s stats popped this week coming in at #3 in the combined model. He ranks top 6 in the field in SG T2G, SG BS, birdie or better percent and approach. He’s in the top half of the field in driving distance and #32 in par 5 scoring. He’s middle of the pack when it comes to putting but with elite ball striking he shouldn’t need to lead the field in strokes gained putting.

$6k Tier

Grayson Murray $6,400 – You would think the $6k range in a weak field would be borderline untouchable but there are a few names that could do more than just make the cut this week. Murray was another golfer who missed the cut on the number at the Safeway shooting -4. Murray had a T12 finish in Punta Cana last year so he is a golfer that comes in with some good course history. Murray doesn’t have too many rounds of golf under his belt since the restart but he has hit the ball pretty well in those eight measured rounds. He’s top 10 in par 5 scoring in the field as well as birdie or better percent. He’s top 25 in ball striking with limited data and is also top 25 in driving distance. Murray comes with plenty of risk but is one of a few guys I’ll take fliers on this week.

Head to Head Picks

Charles Howell III $9,700 vs. Denny McCarthy $9,600

Charles Howell III

Corales Puntacana Course History: N/A

Recent Form: US Open: 30^th (+11), BMW: T48 (+9), Northern Trust: T44 (-8), Wyndham: CUT, 3M Open: T3 (-16)

2019-2020 SG Stats: -.132 SG Tee (143^rd), -.3 SG App (150^th), .392 SG AtG (11^th), .217 SG Putt (60^th)

Other Stats: 301.1 yd/drive (62^nd), 21.01% Birdie or Better (128^th), 4.65 Par 5 Scoring Avg. (112^th)

Denny McCarthy

Corales Puntacana Course History: 2019: T26 (-9), 2018: 4^th (-12)

Recent Form: Safeway Open: CUT, Northern Trust: T49 (-7), Wyndham: T9 (-16), PGA Champ: T58 (+2), Barracuda Champ: T32.

2019-2020 SG Stats: -.139 SG Tee (145^th), -.243 SG App (143^rd), -.137 SG AtG (141^st), .988 SG Putt (1^st)

Other Stats: 293.8 yd/drive (130^th), 23.95% Birdie or Better (16^th), 4.61 Par 5 Scoring Avg. (60^th)

The Pick: Denny McCarthy – At a course that rewards birdies, I’m going with the best putter in the game on this one.  I also like the course history having played well here the last two years.

Corales Podcast Round-Up

Podcast Round-Up to be posted Wednesday