2020 RBC Heritage Golf Bets and DFS Picks

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RBC Heritage Bets | DFS Quick Picks | DFS Picks by Tier | DFS Head to Head Picks | RBC Podcast Round-up | Tournament and Course Preview

It was great to have sports back this weekend and we even got some free golf as Daniel Berger took down Colin Morikawa on the first playoff hole to win the Charles Schwab Challenge at -15.  We had a solid leaderboard all week as DeChambeau, Rose, Schauffele, Reed and even Jordan Spieth returned from the break in good form. Time will tell if this was more of a course fit for Spieth or if he really did find his game (gained strokes off the tee, led the field in putting, but lost strokes on approach).  A couple other stats that stand out before we move on: DeChambeau led the field in shots gained off the tee at 1.83 per round.  Gary Woodland led the field on approach at 2.198 strokes gained while Brooks Koepka was dead last losing -1.225 strokes per round (Brooks gained off the tee and did putt well this week).  Looked like we had a few top 5 and top 10s ready to cash heading into Sunday but late movement on the leaderboard kept us out of the money there.  DFS lineups went a little better to keep the cash roll going, but no big winners.  

This week we’re headed to Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage played at Harbour Town Golf Links.  C.T. Pan won the tournament at -12 last year over Matt Kuchar (-11).  We’re going to have another stacked field this week led by Rory McIlroy (+1000), Bryson DeChambeau (+1100), Justin Thomas (+1200), Jon Rahm (+1600), and Xander Schauffele (+1600). 

Harbour Town is a shorter Par-71 at just 7,099 yards which makes this a very strategic course (although Bryson will probably just hit it over trees if he has to).  Narrow fairways, small greens, and water hazards will make players think twice off the tee and on approach, not to mention the overhanging trees lining fairways and making angles that much more important.  The course has very fast Bermuda greens which add to the difficulty.  As seen at the bottom of the page, winning scores over 10 years have varied from -9 to -18.  Other notables in this week’s field: Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka.

DFS Quick Picks to Consider (DK Pricing)

This section includes guys that stick out (bad and good) after a first glance at pricing and some key stats for this week’s tournament.  I’ll usually play this lineup in a single entry just to see how it does (and so I don’t regret it), but the goal is to highlight some guys who can fill out your player pools and other lineups.

Xander Schauffele $10,200 – Schauffele seems to go under the radar often and he may be in that same category this week with Rahm/Bryson above him and Morikawa/Sungjae/Deki below him.  He had 4 top 25s in a row before the break and continue to play well with a 3^rd place finish last week while gaining more than a stroke off the tee and nearly a stroke on approach.  He’s great in that 150-175 yard  proximity range we’ve highlighted, and seems to score well on 175-200 yd par 3’s and 400-450 yd par 4’s.   He made the cut in each of the last two years at Harbour Town but only had finishes of 63^rd and 32^nd.  It makes sense to ride some iron specialists at this course and I think Xander has elevated himself to that tier of golfer.

Webb Simpson $9,000 – Webb Simpson gets an $800 price reduction after missing the cut last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and his performance might scare away DFS players.  A closer look at his two rounds eases a lot of those worries as he shot +3 in round 1 with 15 pars and 3 bogeys (just not dialed in with wedges or putter), and he came back to shoot -2 in round 2 with 3 birdies, an eagle, 2 bogeys and a double.  So, a little rusty in his first tourney back but playing at a course that fits him well.  He’s gaining .836 on approach, .276 around the green, .513 putting and scores well on these length par 5 and par 4’s. He’s also got 6 top-16 finishes with a 16^th in 2019 and a 5^th place in 2018.  I really like Webb for a bounce back week especially if his ownership falls.

Gary Woodland $8,400 – Woodland was playing solid before the break, played great last week with a 9^th place finish while striking the ball as well as anyone in the field (2.198 SG: App!) and putted well.  With all that said, we get him $400 cheaper this week.  On the season, he’s gaining off the tee (.322) and on approach (.957).  He’s near the top of the field in greens in regulation (72.39%) which will be key given the smaller greens at Harbour Town.  He hasn’t played here since 2013 where he finished 78^th but I wouldn’t put much/any stock in that.  After a great performance last week, probably need to keep an eye on ownership here, but no reason Woodland can’t have another top 10 finish.

Matt Kuchar $8,300 – Kuchar had a similar last week to Webb in that he struggled a little early on and figured things out as the tournament went on.  He just missed the cut after shooting 71/68 to finish -1 for the tournament.  Kuchar was playing well before the suspended season and has a great course history at Habour Town with four top-10s in his last six starts, including a win in 2014 and a 2^nd last year.  He doesn’t really stand out in any of the key stats this week, but he’s accurate off the tee (67.61%), hits GIR (67.41%) and always plays a little better at shorter courses. Like I said with Webb, Kuchar’s ownership might fall off a little bit and it’s a good price point to get some leverage.

Viktor Hovland $7,400 – Hovland played solid last week with a 23^rd place finish while striking the ball well and figuring things out around and on the green.  At $7,400 Hovland could be a steal depending on ownership.  He gains over a stroke per round ball striking (.611 tee, .468 approach) and is hitting short to mid irons great as he ranks highly in proximity stats from 125-200 (ranks #2 from 150-175 and #20 175-200 yards, the first and second highest frequency shots at last year’s tourney).  He hits GIR at 67.65% and his driving accuracy is 65.39% which should keep him out of trouble at Harbour Town.

Bronson Burgoon $6,400 – Alright maybe a reach here all the way down at $6,400 but Burgoon sticks out in this range and is coming off a 38^th place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge.  He has played Harbour Town once in 2016 with a 39^th place finish.  The stats I like for Bronson are his SG: Approach at .317 strokes, top 50 on tour from 150-175 yards and top 25 from 175-200 yards.  He hits greens in regulation (67.72%) and is gaining .397 strokes on the green.  Lastly, he scores well on shorter courses as he’s not a long hitter off the tee.

DFS Picks by Tier (DK Pricing)

$10k+ Tier

Rory McIlroy $11,300 – Before blowing up on the front 9 (+6) of the final round, Rory was in position for another top 5 or top 10 finish.  He ended up 32^nd so hopefully that scares people off a little bit.  He was playing great before the suspended season with finishes of 5^th, 5^th, 5^th, and 3^rd in his last four starts. Rory is still the best player in golf and his stats back that up: SG: Approach +1.008, SG: Tee +.774, 71.23% GIR, and of course ranks well in proximity stats from all distances. He is one of the best at par 3’s in the 175-200 range and should have plenty of birdie opportunities with three par 5’s this week.  He hasn’t played Harbour Town since 2009 where he finished 58^th.  It will be interesting to see ownership projections in this top end range as they’re all great players and can reward any type of leverage you get.

$9k+ Tier

Sungjae Im $9,700 – To avoid duplicating Webb Simpson, we’ll go for Sungjae in a spot where he’s only played once and missed the cut.  On the other hand, he’s been great all season and finished 10^th last week while gaining 1.405 strokes tee to green. He’s pretty accurate off the tee at 64%, hits greens in regulation at 69% and has been consistent on the putting green gaining .482 strokes per round.  He’s top 60 on the tour from 150-175 and 175-200 yards where most of the approach shots are taken and is just playing solid golf all around.

$8k+ Tier

Tyrrell Hatton $8,000 – You can read below what I like about Gary Woodland in this range, but at $8,000 it’s tough to get away from Hatton here.  He played great before and after wrist surgery earlier this year capped off by a win at the Arnold Palmer right before the suspended season.  He’s got a missed cut in 2018 and 29^th place finish in 2017 so not much to go on there.  Numbers wise, Hatton has been a beast (as noted, limited measured rounds),  gaining 1.416 strokes on approach, hitting 65.63% of fairways off the tee, gaining nearly half a stroke around the green and on the green, and elite proximity stats with his short-mid irons.  I kind of balked at Bryson last week after a big gap in the season, but not going to do that with Hatton this week.  Abraham Ancer, Matt Kuchar and Woodland also seem like solid plays in this range.

$7k+ Tier

Luke Donald $7,000 – Sometimes you just have to hammer course history when it’s as good as Luke Donald at Harbour Town.  He has SEVEN top-3 finishes since 2009, most recently 2^nd place finishes in 2017 and 2016.  He was in decent form before the break with a 55^th place finish at Pebble Beach and an 11^th at The Honda Classic.  Beyond that, he is striking the ball well gaining .836 on approach while struggling a little off the tee.  Hopefully his average 59% accuracy off the tee on a short course can minimize his lost strokes here.  He’s always been solid around the green (+.468) and putting (+.383) but this is mostly a course history play which seems like a no brainer at $7,000.  A few others in $7k range are Adam Hadwin, Harris English, and Bubba Watson.

$6k+ Tier

Pat Perez $6,500 – A few years ago Pat Perez noted that you don’t need to have 2% body fat or be able to dunk a basketball to play at the pro golf level, but I swear he looked a little trim coming back from the time off (maybe that’s all in my head).  Anyways, he played solid last weekend for a 49^th place finish while losing more than a stroke off the tee (worst in the field that made the cut).  He made up for that with his irons gaining .925 strokes on approach and with his putter gaining .561 strokes for the week.  He was a little shaky before the break but has good history at Harbour Town with a 6^th place finish in 2011, 18ths in 2014 and 2013, while most recently finishing 70^th in 2017 (5 for 5 on cuts here).  On the season, he’s gaining .333 strokes on approach, hitting GIR at 69%, and scores well on 400-450 yard par 4’s (6 in that range this week).  Some other guys down here that stand out are Doc Redman, Bronson Burgoon, and Brian Stuard.

Outright Golf Bets

*Take advantage of your sportsbook’s each way betting where possible. With each sportsbook varying in how many places they pay out, we provide winner, top 5 and top 10 bets.

DFS Head to Head Golfer Picks

Billy Horschel $7,700 vs. Kevin Kisner $7,700

Course History and “Current Form”: Billy Horschel has played well at Harbour Town making 6 of 7 cuts with top finishes of 5^th in 2018 and 9^th in 2013 (45^th last year).  He finished 38^th last week at Colonial and had made 5 cuts in a row prior to the suspended season, including top 10s at WGC-Mexico and the Waste Management Open.  Kisner has also had success at Harbour Town making his last six cuts in a row with top finishes of 7^th in 2018 and 2^nd in 2015.  He finished 29^th last week at Colonial and was having a mixed bag of results before the break with an 18^th at WGC-Mexico and a missed cut at the Arnold Palmer.

Shots Gained Stats: Horschel is gaining .45 off the tee, losing -.127 on approach and gaining .328 putting this season.  Last week, he gained .868 off the tee, lost -.556 on approach and lost a little on the greens at -.077.  Kiz is gaining .161 off the tee, -.056 on approach and .108 on the greens this season. Last week at Colonial he improved ball striking gaining .6 off the tee, .275 on approach and -.159 on the green.

Wildcard Stats: Both guys hit GIR at a good clip with Horschel at 68.64% and Kisner at 65.24%, and they also are accurate off the tee with Horschel at 65.97% and Kisner at 67.71% on the season.  Kisner has been a little better on par 3’s in the 175-200 range while Horschel has been better on these length par 5 and par 4’s so these guys are very close.  It looks like Kisner’s irons were clicking a little better than Horschel’s last week and Kisner is from South Carolina which I think gives him the slight edge.

The Pick: Kevin Kisner

Joel Dahmen $7,500 vs. J.T. Poston $7,500

Course History and “Current Form”: Both guys played in the RBC Heritage for the first time last year with good results: Joel Dahmen finished 16^th and J.T. Poston finished 6^th. Dahmen finished 19^th last week and was playing great before the break with 4 top 15 finishes (most recently a 5^th at the Arnold Palmer).  Poston played even better last week with a 10^th place finish but wasn’t quite on the same level early on in the season with a few missed cuts and a bunch of finishes in the 30+ range.

Shots Gained Stats: Dahmen is gaining .479 off the tee, .71 on approach, and losing a bit on the green at -.214.  Last week, he kept up his ball striking gaining .188 off the tee, 1.31 on approach, and improved the putting to gain .542 strokes per round.  Poston hasn’t been quite as good this season gaining .065 off the tee, -.07 lost on approach, but gaining .709 on the green.  Last week, Poston was great off the tee gaining .871 strokes, -.24 on approach, and continued to putt well at .915 strokes gained.

Wildcard Stats: Both players are pretty accurate at 64.05% for Dahmen and 67.22% for Poston off the tee. Both golfers also score well on these types of par 3’s with Dahmen taking the edge in par 4 scoring. Poston is a North Carolina guy and lives on Sea Island in Georgia so you have to assume he’s comfortable with the SC course, while Dahmen is from the west coast.  Lastly, Dahmen’s bucket hat should keep him cool in the mid-80s weather they’ll see this week.  I’ll probably be using both of these guys, but if it comes down to it I’ll lean on the season long performance of Dahmen.

The Pick: Joel Dahmen

Tyrrell Hatton $8,000 vs. Abraham Ancer $8,000

Course History and “Current Form”: Course history not much of a factor here with Ancer missing the cut in his only start last year and Hatton missing the cut in 2018 along with a 29^th in 2017.  Both guys have improved a ton over that period, highlighted by Hatton’s most recent win at the Arnold Palmer before the suspended season and a 6^th at WGC-Mexico a couple weeks before that (he did not play last week).  Ancer is coming off a very solid 14^th last week.  He finished 56^th at the Arnold Palmer but has a 2^nd at the Amex and a couple top 10s during the early part of this season (8^th at Mayakoba and 4^th at WGC-HSBC).

Shots Gained Stats: Hatton has been great before and after his wrist surgery (as noted, limited measured rounds), gaining 1.416 strokes on approach, gaining nearly half a stroke around the green and on the green.  Ancer gains .364 off the tee, .422 on approach and is solid around/on the green as well.  Last week, Ancer improved in all areas highlighted by more than a stroke gained on approach showing his game is in great shape.

Wildcard Stats: Hatton is accurate off the tee at 65%, and 72%+ hitting greens in regulation.  When you’re playing at Hatton’s level, stats pop on par 3’s, 4’s, and 5’s, and his proximity stats are great.  Ancer is a little less accurate but still over 62% off the tee.  He has shown great control from 150-175 yards this year and is scoring very well on par 5’s. As I noted in the tiers, I questioned if Bryson could come back as good as he was before the break and am not going to do that this week.  Both solid plays but don’t want to miss out on a potential Hatton top 5.

The Pick: Tyrrell Hatton

RBC Heritage Podcast Round-up
What the betting analysts are saying on RBC

Top Tier ($10,000+)

Rory, JT, Bryson, Rahm, Schauffele, Morikawa. 

The top golfers are all back again and played some good golf last week. Rory’s price drops $500 after shooting +4 in the final round at Charles Schwab making his $11,300 tag look like a bargain, he’s also won three tournaments on Pete Dye tracks. Rory, DeChambeau and Morikawa received the most buzz while Rahm tended to be the forgotten one in this group after missing the cut last week. 

Tier 2 ($8,800-$9,700)

Im, Matsuyama, Rose, Simpson, Berger, Reed.

Webb was the highest owned last week and after missing the cut his ownership is going to drop. He’ll still carry pretty good ownership as most analysts are predicting a bounce back week as Webb has played well at Harbour Town and seemed to have shaken off the rust by day 2. Patrick Reed was another popular pick after a solid performance last weekend and Sungjae should be another popular choice this week playing on bermuda grass. The last time we saw Matsuyama he shot a 63 in round 1 at the PLAYERS, at $9,500 it sounded like people were willing to take on some risk and play Deki. 

All twelve of these golfers are going to get plenty of ownership this week. 

Tier 3 ($7,900-$8,700)

This group of golfers, from Spieth to Fitzpatrick, made up a majority of the fades this week. Spieth, Rickie and Dustin Johnson should be the lowest owned in this group. It’ll be tough to say no to guys like Koepka and DJ as they hit some of their lowest DK prices in years. Ancer was the most popular choice in this range with Kuchar a close second. Kuchar has good course history and missed the cut by one last week. Woodland was in the final group Sunday and is expected to play well again on another course that takes driver out of the hands more than most courses. 

Tier 4 ($7,000-$7,800)

The most popular picks in this range this week were Kokrak, Poston and Dahmen. All three finished inside the top 20 last week and were playing well before the season was suspended. Kisner has a 2nd and 7th place finish here and enjoys putting on Bermuda. Horschel, Niemann, Hadwin and Poulter were popular picks and Bubba Watson was getting a lot of attention after his top 10 last week. He also seems to play well on Pete Dye courses. Other popular plays in this range included Cauley, Sabbatini, Henley, and Patrick Rodgers.

Tier 5 (Below $6,900)

Never a range that gets too much analysis but some plays down here included Ryan Moore, Bronson Burgoon, Matt NeSmith, and Si Woo Kim.