2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

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Another solid tournament this week as we hit the DJ Winner (25/1), Streelman Top 5 (20/1) and Steele Top 10 (12/1) along with a bunch of nice plays in the DFS world!  Dustin Johnson was able to hold off a lurking Kevin Streelman (-18) following a short rain delay to win the 2020 Travelers Championship at -19 after Brandon Todd  (-13) gave up the lead with a triple on hole 12 and never recovered (felt bad for the guy, but nice to see it happens to pros too).  DJ actually lost a little bit off the tee this week (-.013) which is a rarity, but he was great on approach, gaining an average of 1.505 strokes per round (6^th in the field).  He putted great as well, gaining 1.498 on the greens so watch out when he’s back in a couple weeks and can really let it fly off the tee.  A few other stats that stood out for players heading into the Rocket Mortgage: Doc Redman led the field in SG: Tee at 1.094; Viktor Hovland continued to play well leading the field in SG: Tee to Green (2.65) while gaining 1.96 SG: App (3^rd in field); Sungjae Im surprisingly struggled with the irons this week losing -.51 strokes per round so look for a potential bounce back there.

This week we head to Detroit, MI for the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club.  The field is a little weaker than the past few tournaments as guys look to get a break where they can, and we have Bryson DeChambeau (+650), Webb Simpson (+1200), Patrick Reed (+1600), Tyrrell Hatton (+1600) and Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) as the favorites.  Detroit Golf Club began hosting the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2019 at the Par 72, 7,340 yard course, so longer hitters may finally gain a bit of an advantage (as opposed to prior few weeks).  Last year, Nate Lashley won easily at -25 with Doc Redman the runner up at -19.  Lashley stood out with his SG: App numbers gaining 1.388 strokes per round.

Detroit Golf Club is pretty open and guys will use the driver more often than in past weeks (hello Bryson).  The fairways are still narrow; guarded by water, out of bounds, and fairway bunkers, but as shown by Nate Lashley’s -25 last year, pins are gettable on the Donald Ross greens and you’ll see a lot of birdies.  Other notables in this week’s field include: Viktor Hovland (+2000), Sungjae Im (+2200), Rickie Fowler (+2800), Scottie Scheffler (+3300), and Tony Finau (+3300).  Haven’t done a deep dive yet, but seeing Scottie Schefter with the same odds as Finau stands out right off the bat.

DFS Quick Picks to Consider (DK Pricing)

This section includes guys that stick out (bad and good) after a first glance at pricing and some key stats for this week’s tournament.  I’ll usually play this lineup in a single entry just to see how it does (and so I don’t regret it), but the goal is to highlight some guys who can fill out your player pools and other lineups.

Tyrrell Hatton $10,700 – Bryson, Webb and Hatton should eat up a lot of the ownership up top and it will be interesting to see where they fall.  I do think they’re all a step above Patrick Reed, with DeChambeau the clear favorite and safest play.  At $1k cheaper, Hatton will give you some more flexibility and he’s in great form after finishing 3^rd at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago (-20), with no course history here.  On the year, Hatton is gaining .4 strokes off the tee, 1.194 (!) strokes on approach and 1.086 strokes putting which should lead to a lot of birdies this week.  He hits GIR at 72%, has been dialed in with his wedges, and has scored great on par 3’s, 4’s, and 5’s all year.  I’m not really sure where the area of concern would be with Hatton besides losing his temper which he’s seemed to reign in since returning from injury this year.   

Tony Finau $9,300 – Finau has been just average since returning from the break but he can provide top 5 value with the best of them once he’s playing well.  He missed the cut last week after playing solid golf at 3-under par, and finished 33^rd and 23^rd at the RBC and Charles Schwab.  Another guy who hasn’t played here before, Finau is a great, long hitter off the tee gaining .363 strokes on the season, .468 strokes on approach and hovering around even with putting strokes gained.  Since returning from the break, his approach game has been a little off as he’s losing strokes but I don’t expect that to continue for such a great player.  He hits GIR at 71%, is better than most of the field from key distances of 125-150 and 200-225 yards, pops of the sheet for scoring on par 4’s 450-500 yds/350-400 yds and par 5’s 550-600 yards (all of which there are multiple holes this week).  Probably will take a lot to stay away from Finau but hopefully enough people got burned last week to get that ownership down even a little.

Doc Redman $8,500 – I’ve gone to Doc Redman often and it’s been paying off so not jumping ship just because he’s $8,500 this week.  Redman is coming off a great 11^th place finish at the Travelers (-13) where he led the field off the tee gaining 1.094 per round, was 8^th in SG: App at 1.266, and still lost -.428 strokes putting per round.  He had finishes of 21^st at the RBC and 58^th at the Charles Schwab.  Last year, Redman finished second at this tournament posting scores of 68-67-67-67 to finish -19 so he knows how to get birdies here.  On the season overall, Redman gains .436 off the tee, .69 on approach, and generally loses a little around and on the greens.  His irons have been really solid from all distances, he scores well on par 4’s, hits fairways at 69% and GIR at 71.49%.  Things seem to be clicking for Redman so happy to ride it out until he falls apart, even if the price tag looks a little high this week.

Harold Varner III $7,600 – Varner is coming off a solid 32^nd place finish at the Travelers, shooting under 70 all four rounds to finish -10.  He missed the cut shooting -1 at the RBC Heritage the week before but again played well at the Charles Schwab with a 19^th place finish three weeks ago.  At last year’s Rocket Mortgage, Varner shot 71-71 (-2) to miss the cut.  He’s gaining .482 strokes off the tee and .554 SG: App on the season and an even better 1.795 strokes gained on approach last week.  Some other stats that bode well for Varner this week are 70% GIR, great par 5 scoring, and his irons have been solid from key yardages of 150-175 and 200-225.  He’ll have to find the putter where he sometimes struggles if he wants to make a run toward the top page of the leaderboard.

Tyler Duncan $7,000 – Played a bit of Duncan last week and it worked out even if a little late to the party as he has finishes of 32^nd, 28^th, and 38^th over the last three starts in much stronger fields.  In last year’s Rocket Mortgage, he missed the cut shooting 72-71 (-1).  Last week at the Travelers, he gained .822 off the tee, .921 on approach, and lost -.807 strokes on the green which is a bit more than usual so don’t expect such a poor performance again putting.  On the season, Duncan gains slightly off the tee, .297 strokes on approach, and generally is below average putting although at the Charles Schwab and RBC he was able to gain strokes there.  He’s solid enough from some of those key iron distances of 125-150 and 200+, very accurate off the tee hitting 70.41% of fairways, and has scored well in relation to the field on par 5’s and par 3’s this year (4 of each this week).  At $7k and on a streak of three cuts made, I think Duncan continues to be a solid play in this range.

Cameron Percy $6,500 – With the limited number of top players this week, you might need to dip into the $6k’s to find a guy who can make the cut so we’re going with the 46 year old Australian Cameron Percy at $6,500.  Percy missed the cut last week after shooting 67-72 (-1) but before the break had made three in a row at the Farmers, Puerto Rico Open, and Honda Classic (no course history at Detroit Golf Club). Percy is average off the tee hitting 61% of fairways and gaining .094 off the tee but hits GIR at 71% while gaining .692 shots on approach per round.  He’s one of the top wedge players in the field, especially from the key distance of 125-150 yards, is ranked 16^th on the tour in par 4 scoring and 14^th in par 4 scoring from 350-400 yards specifically (four of those holes this week).  Overall, Percy just looks like a better player than the guys around him and is a solid bet to make the cut in a weaker field.

Rocket Mortgage Golf Bets

DFS Picks by Tier (DK Pricing)

$10k+ Tier

Bryson DeChambeau $11,700 – Bryson is the heavy favorite (Rory type odds) this week and for good reason.  He hasn’t missed a beat since returning from the suspended season with finishes of 8^th, 6^th and 3^rd in the last three starts.  He is just overpowering courses and can putt as well as anyone.  Last week, Bryson gained .687 strokes off the tee, just .167 on approach, and 1.262 strokes putting.  On the season, he’s gaining more than a stroke per round off the tee, .486 strokes on approach and .557 strokes putting.  He’s great across the board right now, ranking 13^th in par 5 scoring, 3^rd in par 4 scoring and 5^th in par 3 scoring.  Bryson has hit 72% of GIR this year and we should continue to see great wedges paired with a solid 200+ game which should lead to some low scores this week.  Webb and Hatton are the next up in this range, probably a little ahead of Reed as highlighted by the pricing.

$9k+ Tier

Sungjae Im $9,800 – With only six players in the $9k tier, you may skip this range altogether if you’re playing Bryson or Webb at the top.  Because of that and being priced just below fan favorite Hovland, we’ll have to keep an eye on ownership for guys like Sungjae.  He played here last year for a finish of 21^st at -13, and could have been lower if not for a final round 72.  Sungjae has played in all 3 events since the tour returned, placing 58^th last week, cut at RBC and 10^th at the Charles Schwab.  It seems like he’s been a little shaky as he lost -.51 strokes on approach last week and lost -.244 on the greens for a guy who excels in those areas.  On the season, he’s gaining .521 off the tee, .385 on approach, and .313 on the greens, about as consistent as they come.  He’s accurate enough off the tee at 64% fairways hit and is hitting 69% of greens in regulation.  His wedges have been a little suspect as he is outside the top 100 in a few of those proximity areas, but his consistency shows up in scoring well across all hole types, specifically par 4’s where he ranks 16^th on the tour.  If ownership fades here, look for a good week to play Sungjae.  Finau and Bubba should be solid plays here as well, with Rickie depending on what type of ownership comes his way.

$8k+ Tier

Christiaan Bezuidenhout $8,300 – The key range this week might be mid $7k to mid $8k as these are good players who can make a push toward some top 10 finishes.  Bezuidenhout missed the cut at the Charles Schwab shooting -1, finished 28^th at the RBC shooting -13, did not play last week, and before the suspended season played well in making all three cuts in his starts.  Bezuidenhout can be inconsistent off the tee, losing -.478 strokes on the season and hitting fairways at just 59%.  It gets better from there as he is gaining .742 strokes on approach (13^th on tour) and .656 putting (14^th on tour), a combo that led to great results for players at the Rocket Mortgage last year.  He’s been great from 125-175 yards out and has had success on par 4’s and par 3’s from these distances this season.   Other guys in this range are Redman, Glover, and EVR who set up well for the course.

$7k+ Tier

Brian Stuard $7,400 – This range is filled with players with decent current form and solid finishes at last year’s Rocket Mortgage.  Stuard finished 5^th last year at this tournament posting a -17 while putting very well (2.615 strokes gained per round) and playing poorly off the tee losing -.806 per round.  This year, he’s made all three cuts while finishing 20^th last week, 52^nd at RBC and 43^rd at the Charles Schwab.  Last week, Stuard gained .224 off the tee, .492 on approach and .173 putting so he’s in solid form.  On the season, he’s losing slightly off the tee and on approach, but is gaining around the greens and on the green.  He’s performed well with the wedges this season, scores well on par 3’s and is usually super accurate off the tee at 72% of fairways hit.  Tyler Duncan, Kyle Stanley, Varner and Harman should all get a look down here as well.

$6k+ Tier

Chesson Hadley $6,800 – Hadley has had a decent year, making 9 of 14 cuts with five top-30 finishes.  Since the return, he finished 23^rd at the Charles Schwab and 58^th at the RBC and did not play last week.  Last year, he missed the cut after an opening 75 made it tough to get back to the cut line.  He did post a 71 in round 2 so not a complete disaster.  Hadley gained strokes off the tee and on approach in both tournaments after the break so he’s striking the ball well (gained on greens in one and lost in the other).  On the season, he’s gaining .163 off the tee, .546 on approach and losing -.204 on the greens.  He’s 32^nd on tour in the 125-150 yard proximity stats which is the most frequent shot distance from last year and is good from 200+ as well, another key distance this week (specifically 200-225).  Hadley ranks 53^rd on the tour in par 5 scoring where a lot of the birdies/eagles will be made this week. Lastly, he is accurate off the tee hitting 66.56% of fairways, and hits GIR at 71%.  Armour, Lanto Griffin, Ricky Werenski and Percy could also be guys to make the cut from the $6k range this week.

DFS Head to Head Picks

Doc Redman $8,500 vs. Lucas Glover $8,400

Current Form and Course History: Both Redman and Glover are playing well since returning from the break, making all three cuts. Glover has finishes of T20 last week at the Travelers, T21 at RBC, and T23 at Charles Schwab. Redman has finishes of T11 at Travelers, T21 at RBC and T58 at Charles Schwab.  Doc Redman finished second at last year’s Rocket Mortgage with rounds of 68-67-67-67 (-19) and Lucas Glover did not play in the tournament.

Shots Gained Stats: Redman was great striking the ball last week and a little shaky on the greens: SG: Tee 1.094, SG: App 1.266, SG: Putt -.428. Glover’s numbers were solid on approach and putting but shaky off the tee: SG: Tee -.419, SG: App 1.825, SG: Putt .362.  On the season, Redman is gaining .436 off the tee, .69 on approach and losing a bit putting at -.133.  Glover on the year is pretty similar gaining .268 off the tee, .404 on approach and -.103 putting. Redman’s numbers are probably a little better here but not by much.

Wildcard Stats: Redman and Glover keep the ball in play and hit GIRs.  Redman’s tee accuracy is 69% and GIR is 70%, while Glover is at 65% accuracy and 69% GIR.  Both players are average from the key range of 125-150 and very good from 150-175 out (both top 30 on tour).  Glover has the slight edge on par 3 scoring but Redman has outperformed him on par 5’s and par 4’s.  These guys both lose strokes around the green so it might be a battle of who has the better week putting. Redman and Glover should both garner ownership in this range based on their recent play.

The Pick: Doc Redman

J.T. Poston $8,700 vs. Jason Day $8,600

Current Form and Course History: J.T Poston definitely has the edge here as he finished 11^th at the Rocket Mortgage last year and had finishes of 8^th and 10^th prior to his missed cut last week.  Day has been struggling to find his game and did not play at the Rocket Mortgage last year.  He did put together some solid golf last week finishing 46^th (-7) with all 4 rounds under 70.  Prior to last week, Day missed the cut at the RBC and Charles Schwab.  

Shots Gained Stats: Last week, Poston missed the cut shooting -1 and seemed to stay on track with his season long stats: SG: Tee .151, SG: App -.252, SG: Putt .75.  Day was able to get off the tee fine last week at .381 strokes gained and putt fine at .174 strokes gained, but was still losing with the irons at -.597 strokes on approach.  On the year, Day has posted: SG: Tee .136, SG: App -.45 and SG: Putt -.147. 

Wildcard Stats: Neither of these guys pop off the page on proximity stats from key distances this week, with Day a little better with the wedges/low irons and Poston a little better in the 200-225 yard range.  Poston is more accurate off the tee (65%) and hits more GIR (67%) vs. Day’s accuracy (58%) and GIR (66%).  Jason Day has the advantage in par 5 scoring while Poston has the edge in par 3 scoring. Poston is clearly playing better golf so maybe he’s the play, but I picked Day over the younger Scheffler last week and I’m riding him again with hopes he provides some elite value at just $8,600.  Everyone seems to love Poston these days so I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets more ownership than Jason Day at this point.   

The Pick: Jason Day

Sungjae Im $9,800 vs. Rickie Fowler $9,500

Current Form and Course History: Sungjae hasn’t been as consistent since coming back from the break but still better than Rickie.  Sungjae finished 10^th at the Charles Schwab, missed the cut at RBC and finished 58^th last week at the Travelers.  Fowler has missed both cuts since returning from the break and took last week off (hopefully to work on some things).  Both guys played here last year, with Sungjae finishing 21^st and Rickie 46^th.

Shots Gained Stats: Sungjae’s irons and putter continued to be off last week as he uncharacteristically lost -.51 strokes per round on approach and -.244 putting.  He was fine off the tee gaining .199.  On the season, Sungjae is gaining .521 off the tee, .385 on approach, and .313 putting.  Rickie has been average but not what you expect out of a top golfer gaining just .1 off the tee, .255 on approach and .26 putting. 

Wildcard Stats: Sungjae is near top 50 on the tour scoring on 450-500 yard par 4’s, 350-400 yard par 4’s and 550-600 yard par 5’s; the three most popular hole types this week.  Rickie has not been as good but does score well on par 3’s so expect him to gain on the field there.  Both players are accurate hitting 64% of fairways and hit GIR at good clips with Sungjae 69% and Rickie 67%.  I like Rickie’s betting odds more than his current play, so will be sticking with the safer Sungjae in this range. Rickie always garners some ownership and it could be a case where Sungjae gets lost under Hovland and Deki, making him a solid option.

The Pick: Sungjae Im

Travelers Championship Podcast Round-Up

Podcast Round-Up to be posted Wednesday