2020 Safeway Open Picks

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Silverado Resort and Spa North | Napa, CA

Par 72 – 7,166 Yards

Par 3’s: 240, 212, 182, 189

Par 4’s: 436, 424, 407, 417, 360, 422, 391, 458, 412, 375

Par 5’s: 538, 557, 571, 575

The field at this week’s Safeway Open won’t be as strong coming off the Tour Championship, especially as players prep for the U.S. Open at Winged Foot GC in New York next week.  Favorites this week include: Phil Mickelson (+2000), Si Woo Kim (+2000), Brendan Steele (+2200), Jordan Spieth (+2500) and Emiliano Grillo, Harold Varner III, Joel Dahmen, Sergio Garcia, and Shane Lowry all at +2800).  Other notables in the field include: Brandt Snedeker (+4000), Keegan Bradley (+5000), Jim Furyk (+6600), and Jason Dufner (+12500).

The shorter course will make it easier for driving distance leaders, but accurate drivers have had success here as well. The most frequent shot type last year was 100-125 yards, followed by 175-200 yards, so look at proximity stats from those distances (lots of wedges this week).  Strokes gained tee to green with an emphasis on strokes gained on approach will be huge and you’ll need a guy with a high birdie or better % if you want him to challenge the top of the leaderboard.  Two things stick out as far as hole composition goes this week: 400-450 yard par 4 scoring and 550-600 yard par 5 scoring.  Overall, par 72 courses are going to challenge players on all hole types, so looking at par 3, 4 and 5 scoring could help weed out guys who don’t perform in one of those areas.

DFS Quick Picks (DK Pricing)

Joel Dahmen $9,500 – Dahmen seems like a safer play than a few of the guys in this $9k range (18 of 22 cuts made 2019-2020 season), but it also comes with the upside of five top 10’s. Most recently, Dahmen has a 10^th at the PGA Championship and 20^th at the BMW Championship.  He’s finished CUT, 46^th, and CUT the last three years at the Safeway. He gains with the driver (.356 SG Tee) and irons (.336 SG Approach), but loses -.063 strokes per round with the putter.  Dahmen scores well on par 4’s and par 3’s but has struggled making birdies on par 5’s and will have to improve there this week.  He’s had a couple very, very bad rounds pop up since returning from the break (77 at BMW, 78 and 81 at Memorial, 79 and 81 at Workday) and he’ll need to avoid those to make this price worth it.

Harold Varner III $9,100 – Always a fan of HVIII, especially in a less talented field like this week.  Varner has made the cut each of the last five years with top finishes of 15^th (2016), 14^th (2018) and 17^th (2019).  He’s made just two of his last five cuts, but one of those finishes was a 7^th (-17) at the Wyndham and the other a 29^th (-3) at the PGA Championship.  A lot of Varner’s stats pop out from this past season: .458 SG Tee, .442 SG App, .244 SG AtG, GIR at 70.57% and par 4 birdie or better percentage (25^th on tour).  HVIII is another guy who can struggle with the putter (141^st on tour) but the rest of his game should keep him in the mix.

Cameron Davis $8,900 – Cam Davis finished 17^th at the Safeway two years ago and missed the cut last year.  He missed four cuts in a row when the 2019-2020 season returned in June, but has since made four in a row finishing T12 at 3M Open, T32 at Barracuda (same week as WGC), T15 at Wyndham and T29 at the Northern Trust.  Davis finished the year gaining .211 off the tee, .213 SG: Approach and .005 SG: Putting.  He’s only average from some of the key iron distances this week (100-125 and 175-200 yds), but is 14^th on the tour in birdie or better percentage (24.04%) and 21^st on the tour in par 5 scoring.  As long as Davis does better than his 99^th on the tour in bogey avoidance, we know he can make enough birdies to go low.

Tyler Duncan $8,400 – Duncan has played in the Safeway Open the last three years and made the cut each time finishing 56^th, 69^th, and 5^th.  After the return of golf in June, he made 9 of 10 cuts highlighted by a 28^th at the RBC Heritage and a T13 at the Wyndham Championship.  Duncan gained .075 off the tee, .3 on approach and lost -.132 putting in the 2019-2020 season.  His irons (SG App) have been very solid in stretches since returning from the break gaining 1.193 strokes per round at the Northern Trust and .425 at the Wyndham. Might seem like a high price, but if Duncan can keep things in check on and around the green he should score well.

Wesley Bryan $7,100 – Bryan finished 55^th at the Safeway in 2017 and missed the cut here in 2019.  Bryan had just four starts this season but was very solid: T68 at RBC Heritage, T24 at the Travelers, T21 at the Rocket Mortgage, and T31 at the Wyndham Championship.  In just 16 measured rounds this year, he lost -.263 off the tee, gained 1.284 strokes on approach, and lost -.263 putting.  Wesley Bryan’s accurate off the tee so maybe the shorter course will save him some strokes there, and as long as his irons stay hot he can put together another nice finish.

Scott Stallings $6,900 – Bad news first: In four starts at this course (2015-2018), Scott Stallings has made the cut just once, finishing 21^st in 2015.  But, Stallings made 7 of 8 cuts after the return of golf this year with a T6 at the Travelers (6/28) and a T5 at the Barracuda (8/2 – played same week as WGC St. Jude).  He’s been great with the irons since returning from break gaining strokes consistently on approach (.309 per round last season), but has had trouble off the tee (-.191 per round average last season).  This has shown up in proximity stats as well, with Stallings ranking near the top of the field in key distances.  Stallings scores well across the board, avoids bogeys (just 14.18%), and makes enough birdies to actually creep up the leaderboard, more you can say about most guys in this range.

DFS Picks by Tier (DK Pricing)

$10k Tier

Si Woo Kim $10,800 – I’m not sure how much I like anyone in the 10k range but Si Woo is the only one popped in our model this week. He’s #1 in the field for birdie or better %, top 10 in the field for proximity from 175-200, and top 10 in strokes gained approach. He also ranks in the top 25 in the field for strokes gained putting on poa. Si Woo had a third place finish at the Wyndham a few weeks back and is playing much better golf lately. He’ll need to do much better than his 49th place finish last year to return value but he’s a threat to go low any day of the tournament.

$9k Tier

Chez Reavie $9,600 – Reavie may not be the most exciting pick in the 9k range but he’s got decent course history and good recent form. He doesn’t top any stat category but is in the top 25 for four of our key stats. This includes proximity from both 100-125 and 175-200 as well as SG approach and birdie or better percentage. You don’t need to be a bomber to win here and offers a nice pivot option from what should be a popular HV III.

$8k Tier

Bud Cauley $8,600 – Cauley rated out as the #16 golfer in our model this week and similar to Reavie, has been playing well in multiple phases. He is top 35 in four of the key stats we looked at this week including proximity 100-125, SG approach, and birdie or better percentage. He is also in the top 30 in the field for strokes gained putting on poa. Cauley’s played here the last four years and hasn’t missed a cut. He finished t7 here back in 2018 and has been playing well enough to contend in this field.

$7k Tier

Chesson Hadley $7,000 – Hadley hasn’t been setting the world on fire recently but is a decent option down at the bottom of the 7k range. He’s top 20 in the field in proximity from 175-200, SG approach, and birdie or better percentage. He is also in the top 25 in the field for proximity 100-125 and top 25 in the field for SG putting on poa. He’s got a third place finish here in 2018 but also missed the cut two out of five times out.

$6k Tier

Wyndham Clark $6,800 – Clark cracks the top 20 in our model this week and is an intriguing play in the 6k range. Its a range that could be avoided with many builds but if you are playing Si Woo you might want to take a look at Clark. He’s bottom half of the field in proximity stats but is 4th in the field in par 5 scoring and top 40 in birdie or better percentage. He’s top 15 in the field in putting on poa and his length off the tee could help give him an edge on some holes. JB Holmes actually popped in the model this week at $6,900 but carries some additional WD risk.

Outright Golf Bets

DFS Head to Head

Brandt Snedeker $9,300 vs. Doc Redman $9,200

Brandt Snedeker

Course History: 2019 – 17^th, 2018 – 2^nd, 2015 – 17^th, 2014 – 57^th

Recent Form: Northern Trust – CUT, Wyndham Championship – T42, PGA Championship – T51, WGC St. Jude – T67, Workday – CUT

2019-2020 SG Stats: -.333 SG: Tee, -.336 SG: App, .514 SG: AtG, .347 SG: Putt

Other Stats: Birdie % – 21.17% (114^th on tour), Driving Dist. – 288.5 yds (162^nd), Accuracy – 61.94% (76^th)

Doc Redman

Course History: 2019 – CUT

Recent Form: Northern Trust – CUT, Wyndham Championship – T3, PGA Championship – T29, 3M Open – CUT, Memorial – CUT

2019-2020 SG Stats: .346 SG: Tee, .584 SG: App, -.332 SG: AtG, -.004 SG: Putt

Other Stats: Birdie % – 22.36% (47^th), Driving Dist. – 297.4 yds (95^th), Accuracy – 68.27% (13^th)

The Pick: Doc Redman

Podcast Round-Up

Podcast Round-Up to be posted Wednesday (when available)