2020 The CJ Cup Picks

CJ Cup at Shadow Creek Analysis (Jump to Section):
Outright Golf Bets | DFS Quick Picks | DFS Picks by Tier | DFS Head to Head Picks | Tournament and Course Preview

This week we have the CJ Cup, usually held at The Club at Nine Bridges in South Korea, but moved to Shadow Creek Golf Course in Las Vegas due to Covid.  You might remember Shadow Creek from the Tiger vs. Phil event in 2018 but with no other PGA events regularly held here, course history won’t be a factor.  Justin Thomas won the CJ Cup in 2019 and 2017 with Brooks Koepka winning in 2018, but that’s pretty useless info with the venue change (although player composition may have been similar).

It’s a stacked field even with Dustin Johnson (+1000) withdrawing due to Covid (+1000), as he’s followed by Jon Rahm (+1000), Justin Thomas (+1200), Rory McIlroy (+1400) and Xander Schauffele (+1400). This year’s tournament is a smaller field no-cut event, so getting 6 of 6 in your DK lineup won’t be an issue (unless you get a Kevin Na WD).  Brooks Koepka (+2500) is back after taking a break with a knee injury so we’ll get to see who he randomly talks shit about this week.  Other notables in the field include Matthew Wolff (+2000), Collin Morikawa (+2500), Patrick Cantlay (+2500) and Tyrrell Hatton (+2500).  See additional course info here.

Outright Golf Bets

DFS Quick Picks

Rory McIlroy $10,600 – With JT ($10,600) priced just above and Xander ($10,300) just below, Rory is at a good price if those guys eat up some of the ownership.  Over his last three start’s he’s finished 8^th at the US Open, 8^th at the Tour Championship and 12^th at the BMW Championship.  In the 2020 season, Rory ranked 12^th in SG Total and 6^th in SG Tee, but struggled with the putter ranking 122^nd on tour.  He also ranked 10^th in birdie or better percentage at 24.54%. Lastly, the no-cut event gives Rory a guaranteed four rounds in case he has a slow start.

Collin Morikawa $9,500 – We can only hope that Morikawa’s missed cut last week at the Shriners (69-67) and missed cut at the US Open (76-71) scare some people away, but with seven top 10’s and two wins last season that’s probably unlikely.  Morikawa was 5^th on the tour strokes gained tee to green last season (1.33) and 2^nd in approach (.884).  He’s plenty long off the tee at 297 yds/drive, ranked 21^st on the tour in birdie or better percentage and 6^th in par 5 scoring.  With Finau out and Berger/Deki/Fleetwood below him, Morikawa has just shown that he can win in elite fields.

Scottie Scheffler $8,800 – Scheffler missed the cut last week but he shot 69-67 (-6) so maybe the missed cut will scare some people away.  He was 37^th (-6) two weeks ago at Sanderson Farms in his first start after testing positive for Covid but not far removed from 5^th at Tour Champ, 20^th at BMW, 4^th at Northern Trust and 4^th at the PGA Champ.  Scheffler ranked 10^th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green last season highlighted by .618 off the tee and .398 on approach.  He was 7^th in birdie or better percentage at 24.93%.  Scheffler’s irons were pretty bad two weeks ago at Sanderson Farms (-.842 per round) but he was great off the tee (.703).

Kevin Kisner $7,500 – Kisner looked like he got something going at the end of last season with six top 25’s in a row (a few limited fields in there), including a 3^rd at Wyndham and 4^th at Northern Trust in October.  He did miss the cut at the US Open but has not had any starts since then.  Last year, Kisner was 29^th on tour in total strokes gained (.757), highlighted by his .234 gained on approach (65^th) and .559 putting (15^th).  He’s accurate enough to make up for his length off the tee and avoids bogeys.  Anytime you give a putting specialist four days on a course, the putter will get going at some point.

Russell Henley $7,100 – With some unknowns at Shadow Creek this week, strokes gained on approach could be a key stat, and Henley was 3^rd on the tour last year at .867 per round.  He was short off the tee at 290 yds/drive and overall lost with the putter, but his driving accuracy and bogey avoidance should separate him from a few of the other players in this range. Henley finished 27^th (-14) last week and had three top 10’s after the restart last season.  Henley was 18^th in strokes gained tee to green last week gaining more than a stroke per round on approach.

Lanto Griffin $6,300 – In a week where you should go stars and scrubs, Lanto seems like a safe play making 21 of 27 cuts last season but with the upside of four top 10’s and 14 top 25’s.  He’s long off the tee, should take advantage of the par 5’s  and gained a little bit across the board last season (one of the few guys to do this).  Putting was a strength last season, so if he can get another area of his game to pop this weekend, it should add up over four rounds.

DFS Picks by Tier

Xander Schauffele 10300

Xanderis the pick in the 10k and above range this week. Xander Schauffele comes in this week at #3 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #13 in SG tee to green and #8 in the field for birdie or better percentage. Xander also ranks #3 in the field for par 5 scoring and #13 for driving distance. Without much course history we’re relying pretty heavily on recent form and stats. Xander plays well in these smaller field events and offers some savings over Rahm and JT.

Tyrrell Hatton 9600

Hatton is the pick in the 9k range this week. Hatton comes in this week at #9 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #26 in SG tee to green and #9 in the field for birdie or better percentage. Hatton also ranks #8 in the field for par 5 scoring and #11 for driving distance. Hatton’s coming off a win at the BMW in England last week and that plus some concerns over travel may drive his ownership down a bit. Hatton is a pretty streaky golfer but when he’s on, he usually strings a few nice events together. I’ll take Hatton in the 9k range this week.

Sungjae Im 8700

Sungjae is the pick in the 8k range this week. Sungjae comes in this week at #13 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #39 in SG tee to green and #35 in the field for birdie or better percentage. Sungjae also ranks #1 in the field for par 5 scoring and #32 for driving distance. Sungjae has looked much better over his last few events and could be close to his pre-Covid form. He finished T13 last week and has played three of the last four weeks so he should be good to go from the first tee shot.

Si Woo Kim 7100

Si Woo is the pick in the 7k range this week. Si Woo comes in this week at #1 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #6 in SG tee to green and #1 in the field for birdie or better percentage. Si Woo also ranks #18 in the field for par 5 scoring and #15 for driving distance. Si Woo has been popping in stat models for weeks and backed it up with a T8 last week. He’s 7100 this week and has one of the higher ceilings for guys in this range. In this no-cut event there is much less risk making Si Woo part of your core.

Mackenzie Hughes 6800

Hughes is the pick in the 6k range this week. Hughes comes in this week at #29 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #58 in SG tee to green and #16 in the field for birdie or better percentage. Hughes also ranks #17 in the field for par 5 scoring and #25 for driving distance. Hughes has 4 top 13’s in his last 5 events and they haven’t all been weak fields. He’s been hitting his irons much better and always ranks in the top of the field in SG putting. Hughes could surprise people this week.

Head to Head Picks

Head to Head picks to be posted Wednesday