THE PLAYERS Championship Bets and DFS Picks

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Great win for Hatton last week at the Arnold Palmer.  Draft Kings lineups produced some nice winners based on last week’s analysis but nothing to write home about.  The carnage moved guys in and out of top-5s and top-10s all day and we ended up nailing Tyrrell Hatton (+900) and Joel Dahmen (+1800) Top-5’s while just missing out on the Leishman winner ticket at +4000.

This week we go to TPC Sawgrass, and whether you buy in to The Players being the “5^th Major” or not, it’s a big tournament and will get a lot of attention. The Island Green 17^th is one of the most (in)famous par 3’s on the tour and can add to the pressure down the stretch. Unfortunately, Tiger is sitting this one out to take care of a sore back, but we’ll still be watching a stacked field with players highlighting this tournament on their calendar every year.  Tiger may be the only player in the top 25 world golf rankings to not play, so this includes: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson.

You can read our tournament preview here, but the course is not too long at just under 7200 yards which means players of all types will have a chance to stay in contention.  Some of the stats we’ll use for our picks and analysis below include SG: Tee, SG: Approach, proximity stats from 150-175 yards (highest frequency distance last couple years), Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, and as always, current form and course history play a major role.  Other numbers that might help decide a tiebreaker include par 5 scoring, sand stats as the course is filled with bunkers, and proximity stats 50-125 and 175-200 yards. If last week wasn’t a big enough reminder, weather can have a major impact during this Florida swing so keep an eye on Ponte Vedra Beach, FL throughout the week and follow us on twitter for updates (@PGAPicksWeekly).

DFS Tier by Tier Picks (DK Pricing)

$10k+ Tier: Rory McIlroy $11,700

Last week, I said no need to get fancy when Rory is at the top, and I’m sticking with that at The Players.  Jon Rahm has been churning out top 10s like it’s nothing and Justin Thomas has as much win equity as anyone.  Both Rahm and JT should be lowered owned than Rory as well, but that’s just how good Rory has been over the past year that I’m willing to overlook all of that.

Rory’s last four starts have produced finishes of 5^th, 5^th, 5^th, and 3^rd and he has four top-10’s at TPC Sawgrass including the win last year.  Rory is gaining off the tee (.718 strokes) and even better on approach (1.216), with his approach game even better this past week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  At some point it seems unnecessary to rattle off his stats, but he scores great on long par-4’s and shorter par 5’s so will have plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities this week.  His around the green game is good, and he’s been above average putting, so if he does gain more than a few strokes total on the greens, watch out for a runaway win.  If you want to avoid the high ownership of Rory, Rahm and JT this week, it seems like DJ is going under the radar and Brooks just hasn’t shown enough to gain the trust of DFS players this season.

$9k+ Tier: Webb Simpson $9,200

This one is strictly to pivot from Bryson DeChambeau as it seems he’s getting the most attention this week (and really all of these $9k guys look like great plays).  Webb finished 16^th, 1^st, and 16^th in his last three starts at The Players and his last three starts this season he finished 61^st, 1^st and 3^rd.  Webb is pretty average off the tee as he hits over 300 and keeps the ball in play leading to -.13 strokes lost this season.  Where he really pops is in his iron game and putting, gaining .968 on approach and .72 on the green (in his last win at Waste Management he gained 7.5 strokes on approach!).  He leads the field in 450-500 yard par-4 scoring (five of those holes on this course), and is near the top in par-5 scoring.  Hopefully he doesn’t see too much sand but he’s also one of the best bunker players on the tour, so he should be able to scramble when he needs to this week.

$8k+ Tier: Sungjae Im $8,600

Until the machine that is 21-year-old Sungjae Im is priced higher, there is no reason to shy away.  What I like even more about Sungjae this week is that he’s surrounded by big names that will get some interest (Fowler $8,900, Reed $8,500, Woodland $8,300).  He has three top-10’s in his last eight starts, more recently coming off a win at the Honda Classic and a 3^rd place finish at a tough Arnold Palmer tournament.  He’s gaining more than a half stroke off the tee (.53) and on approach (.518) with even better numbers off the tee last week (.913).  Sungjae’s short to mid-iron game has been solid, he’s great on longer par-4’s and par-5’s, we know he can hit putts all day and his one weakness (around the green) was pretty damn good last week gaining 1.315 strokes per round.

$7k+ Tier: Matt Kuchar $7,800

If you’re looking for someone with course history, Kuch is your guy, having played 50 rounds over 15 starts at The Players Championship.  He’s only missed the cut three times and has finished 3-under or better in eight of the starts while winning in 2012 (-13) and collecting six more top-25’s at the event.  He’s made the cut in 5 of his last 6 cuts this season and all five were top-25s (highest finish 2^nd at the Genesis).  His ball striking hasn’t been elite while he loses off the tee (-.146) and gains a little on his approach (.208), but the shorter course should mitigate some of those issues as he’s one of the most accurate players on tour (69% driving accuracy).  He’s above average in par-4 and par-5 scoring but where he makes his money is his putter which can get as hot as anyone (8.2 strokes gained in his 2012 victory).  Some other plays in this range include Hatton, Leishman, and Fitzpatrick who seem undervalued mostly due to the early pricing this week.

$6k+ Tier: Bud Cauley $6,200

The lower ranges seem pretty stacked with viable plays this week and we’re going way down the list for Bud Cauley at $6,200 (not quite as far down as Zach Johnson’s $6,000 price tag which is just disrespectful).  Cauley has missed the cut in 3 of 4 tries with a 47^th place finish last year, but his current form is good with four straight cuts made and finishes of 32^nd, 42^nd, 51^st, and 25^th (also finished 4^th at the American Express 7 week ago).  He’s struggled a little bit off the tee (-.223 strokes lost and even worse at the Arnold Palmer at -.379), but like Kuchar the shorter course should help him a little bit there.  His iron game has been great gaining .522 strokes per round and was even better at .976 last week.  For a shorter hitter, he plays the longer par-4’s and par-5’s above average and he’s good around the green and with the putter.  You’re not going to find many players at $6,200 that don’t have a major flaw, so as long as Cauley can set himself up off the tee, I like his chances with the mid-irons.  I pushed for Dahmen last week and like him in this range again along with Harman and Gooch.

DFS Head-to-Head Picks (DK Pricing)

Whether you’re building a stars and scrubs lineup or a more balanced one, these guys will definitely be on your radar.  These are pretty close decisions and price points so it’s possible you roster both players. 

Rickie Fowler $8,900 vs. Hideki Matsuyama $8,800

Current Form and Course History: Rickie has recent finishes of 18^th (Arnold Palmer), cut, 37^th, cut, 10^th, and 5^th. He has made The Players cut in 5 of 10 tournaments with a win in 2015 and a 2^nd in 2012.  All other finishes were 47^th (last year) or worse.  Hideki has recent finishes of 56^th (Arnold Palmer), 6^th, 5^th, 16^th, 45^th, and 12^th. He has made The Players cut in 5 of 6 tournaments with a best finish of 7^th (2016) and four more top 25’s (8^th last year) and seems to be the more consistent player here.

Ball Striking and Other: Rickie’s solid off the tee (.255) and approach (.244) and improved in both at last week’s Arnold Palmer (.447 and .285). Hideki has been awesome gaining off the tee (.385) and approach (.887) and was solid again last week (.738 and .249). One area where Rickie is much better is putting, where he’s gained .393 strokes per round this year while Deki has lost -.535 (and -1.5 last week, yikes).

Wildcard Stats: Looking at proximity stats from 150-175, 450-500 yard par-4 scoring and par-5 scoring, Hideki has outplayed Rickie in every area this year.  Rickie is a fan favorite so his ownership will always be up as well. I faded Rickie last week and he had a solid 18^th place finish, but I’m not sure Hideki’s putting is a big enough red flag to outweigh his iron game.

The Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

Joel Dahmen $6,600 vs. Max Homa $6,600

Current Form and Course History: Max Homa finished 24^th last week and has made 9 cuts in a row with 6 top-25 finishes (including 3 top 10s) but has never played in The Players Championship.  Joel Dahmen finished 5^th last week and has made 11 of 13 cuts with 6 top-25 finishes (including 4 top 10s).  He finished 12^th last year in his only start at The Players Championship.

Ball Striking and Other: Homa is gaining off the tee and on approach (.295 and .198) and was elite last week at 1.569 strokes gained per round on approach (at a very difficult course).  Dahmen is a ball striking machine at .517 off the tee and .632 on approach and also crushed last week improving both to .606 and 1.796 respectively.  Homa can struggle around the greens sometimes (-1.068 last week) and Dahmen can have trouble putting (-.398 last week) so both are things to keep an eye on.

Wildcard Stats: These guys are pretty similar in scoring on par-4’s and par-5’s, and both are good from the sand if needed, but Dahmen’s irons are definitely a little bit better lately. Homa was higher owned last week, but Dahmen is sure to gain ground or pass him on that front at The Players.

The Pick: Joel Dahmen

Tony Finau $8,100 vs. Sergio Garcia $8,000

Current Form and Course History: Finau didn’t make the cut last week, but has been playing pretty well with finishes of 51^st, 2^nd, 6^th, and 14^th over his previous four starts.  He’s played here four times, making the cut twice with finishes of 22^nd (2019) and 57^th (2018).  Sergio has made 8 cuts in a row between the PGA tour and the European tour with a couple top-10’s on the European tour and 37ths at the WGC and Genesis Invitational.  At The Players Championship, Sergio has made an absurd 18 of 20 cuts with ten top-25’s, six top-10’s and a win in 2008.  Talk about course history, you could probably pencil in Sergio now and be good to go, but Finau is still the 16^th ranked player in the world to Sergio’s 38^th.

Ball Striking and Other: Both players are great overall ball striking, but they get they’ve gotten there in different ways this season. Finau gains off the tee (.188) but is much better on approach (.895) while Sergio gains more off the tee (only 8 measured rounds) at 1.222 strokes and loses on approach at -.437.  Don’t buy into the Sergio stats too much for the reason they’re only from 8 rounds this year and he’s known as a great iron player. Finau has been solid around the while both players have been average putters.

Wildcard Stats: The wildcard “stat” for Sergio is always his temper as he can lose control and intentionally damage putting greens leading to a disqualification like at the Saudi International (not kidding).  But, we saw Hatton control his emotions just fine last week so sometimes it works in your favor.  Finau’s irons are awesome from every distance and this is a course where you have to give yourself birdie chances.  He also hits the ball a long ways which will help on the 450-500 yard par-4’s. Ownership shouldn’t be a major factor and Sergio’s history here makes it a toss-up, even if Finau is the better ranked player.

The Pick: Sergio Garcia

DFS Quick Pick Analysis (DK Pricing)

Good thing about lineups this week is that whoever you select, the PGA Tour is promising you can view every single shot from every single group (not sure I believe that quite yet).  The top of the board will be tough to differentiate, as you can’t go wrong with Rory, JT or Rahm. For this week’s quick pick looks, we’ll focus on some of the guys who may fill out the bottom of your rosters as there is a lot to like in the $7,500 and under range.  Read below to see which guys we’re in on and which guys may be fades.

Bryson DeChambeau $9,100 – Bryson said he was going to focus on building muscle so that he could hit bombs but I’m not sure even he thought it would go this well.  He’s gaining over a stroke off the tee this season and gained a ridiculous 7.2 strokes off the tee at the Arnold Palmer (next closest Keith Mitchell at 4.4).  His SG: Approach on the season is .275 and for the Arnold Palmer it was even better at .873.  He’s solid from the 150-175 approach range and one of the best in the field in 450-500 yard Par-4 scoring with an average of 4.01 (five of these holes at TPC).  Bryson has three consecutive top 5’s and has made the cut both times he’s teed off for The Players (20^th, 37^th). Everything lines up for a nice week here.

Scottie Scheffler $7,500 – There are a lot of plays in this range (Leishman $7,600, Hatton $7,400, Fitzpatrick $7,300) which is good, as nobody will garner ALL of the ownership. Scheffler is playing solid golf with finishes of 15^th(top 5 DK scoring), 26^th, 30^th, cut, cut, 3^rd over his last six starts but he has no course history at The Players (which I don’t mind at this price range). His ball striking is great gaining off the tee (.673) and on approach (.282), and he pretty much gained across the board last week (besides putting where he LOST 5 strokes).  He also gained 6 strokes around the green last week but I think both of those stats are outliers that we don’t need to spend too much time on.  He performs across all of the key stats this week and with the four par-5’s I’d expect him to continue scoring in a big way for DK.

Bubba Watson $7,300 – At $7,300 I think there is a lot to like with Bubba this week.  His last five starts have produced finishes of cut, 18^th, cut, 3^rd, 6^th and he has made the cut 8 of his last 10 starts at The Players (no finish better than 37th).  Bubba always gains off the tee (.669) and has only lost a little bit on approach this year (-.072).  Now to the positives where Bubba is near the top of the field: proximity from 150-175 yards, 450-500 yard Par-4 scoring, Par-5 scoring and SG Putting; all key stats for this week.  It’s surprising to see that Bubba hasn’t had a higher finish at The Players but I expect a solid week out of him at just $7,300.

Harold Varner III $6,900 – Varner takes us into the $6,900 range and he’s put together three decent finishes (36^th, 42th, 13^th) after missing four cuts in a row.  In four starts at The Players, he has finishes of cut, 7^th, 35^th, and 57^th.  HVIII is gaining off the tee (.544) and on approach (.273), has good short-mid irons, and plays shorter (500-550) par-5’s as well as anyone in the field. I can’t imagine Varner is too highly owned and he just sticks out as a better player than a lot of guys in this range.

Max Homa $6,600 – Homa could be pretty chalky this week and for good reason.  While he has not started at The Players before, his last seven finishes are 24^th, 5^th, 14^th, 6^th, 9^th, 48^th, and 25^th. He’s great off the tee (.295 strokes gained) and has been good on approach (.198) with even better approach numbers at the Arnold Palmer last week (1.5+ gained).  He doesn’t stick out in any of the major stats to look for this week and has been average at best on the par-5’s.  If his ownership gets too high, it might be time to jump off the Homa train with so many plays in this range.

Tom Hoge $6,500 – Coming off a top-15 finish at the Arnold Palmer, I think Hoge’s recent form and two cuts in two tries at The Players make him a pretty low risk play for someone at $6,500.  He’s made 6 of 7 cuts with four top-15 finishes and is gaining off the tee (.142) and is gaining another .699 strokes on approach, one of the most important stats of the week.  He’s above average in the 150-175 yard approach range and in 450-500 yard par-4 scoring, while a little below average in par-5 scoring.  He’s generally a much better putter than he was last week so if he can improve there, I’d expect a made cut and potentially another top 25.          

The Players Podcast Roundup

Podcast/Analyst roundup to be posted Wednesday

Bets, Picks and Analysis to be added throughout the week.

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*For Top 5 finisher picks, it’s common to place a winner bet with Top 5 each way if your book provides that option.