2020 U.S. Open Championship Picks

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September 17 – September 20

Winged Foot GC | Mamaroneck, NY

Par 70 – 7,477 Yards

Defending Champion 2018-2019: Gary Woodland (-13) def. Brookes Koepka (-10) at Pebble Beach

Par 3’s: 243, 162, 214, 212

Par 4’s: 451, 484, 467, 502, 321, 490, 384, 452, 426, 498, 504, 469

Par 5’s: 565, 633

This year’s U.S. Open will be played at Winged Foot Golf Club outside of New York City.  The early story of the week is how thick the rough will play if you miss the fairways or the greens so expect a grind it out type of tournament.  Last time the U.S. Open was played at Winged Foot in 2006, Geoff Ogilvy won shooting +5 to hold off Jim Furyk (+6), Phil Mickelson (+6) and Colin Montgomerie (+6).  Beyond a match play US Amateur Championship won by Ryan Moore in 2004, the last championship at Winged Foot was the PGA Championship in 1997 where Davis Love (-11) won by 5 strokes over Justin Leonard.  Overall, not a ton of course history here, and changes to the course over the years will make it tough to look at past results.

The favorites this week are Dustin Johnson (+800), Jon Rahm (+1000), Justin Thomas (+1200), Rory McIlroy (+1400) and Xander Schauffele (+1600).  Of course, Tiger (+4000) is back in the field this week.  He’s had some good rounds here and there but the consistency just hasn’t been there since returning to golf in July (37^th at PGA Championship top finish after break).  Take note that Scottie Scheffler has withdrawn from the tournament due to a positive COVID test, and Koepka is out with a knee injury, so those bets and DFS ownership will have to go elsewhere.  Other notables in the field this week include Colin Morikawa (+1800), Bryson DeChambeau (+2500), Patrick Cantlay (+2500), Webb Simpson (+2500), and Daniel Berger (+2800).

Some of the key stats we highlighted in our course preview are strokes gained putting, driving accuracy, par 4 scoring, birdie percentage and total strokes gained.

DFS Quick Picks (DK Pricing)

Rory McIlroy $10,500 – Rory McIlroy is recently a new father and I’m chalking that up as a positive heading into Winged Foot this week.  He mentioned he was having trouble manufacturing energy in recent tournaments but let’s assume his mind was in another place with his wife due at any moment.  His irons weren’t great at the Tour Championship (-.325 SG App), but he gained .564 strokes off the tee, .434 around the green and .244 per round putting.  The four time major champion is still the top player in the world (even if OWGR say otherwise) and worth the risk/depressed ownership at $1k less than DJ.  He bombs it at 314 yds per drive and has some of the best long irons in golf which should certainly come into play this week.  His early 2020 season stats still put him at 12^th on the tour in total strokes gained, we know he’ll make birdies, and he ranks top 10 in par 4 scoring.  Favorites probably don’t need much analysis and I think the strange second half of the 2019-2020 is just an outlier that Rory will bounce back from.

Patrick Reed $8,500 – Patrick Reed is the 10^th ranked golfer in the world and has a green jacket from 2018 to show for it, so we know he can get it done in a major.  He had four top 15’s in the second half of last season including a 13^th place finish at the PGA Championship and finished 8^th in the FedEx Cup.  At the Tour Championship, Reed looked solid in most stats with a little drop off in his approach numbers: .732 SG Tee, -.607 SG App, .487 SG ARG and .305 SG Putt.  In the 2020 season, he finished 11^th in total strokes gained at 1.295 per round and 12^th in strokes gained putting at .599, a great combo for what should be a difficult course.  He was 6^th on the tour in par 4 scoring and 13^th in birdie or better percentage.  One area of concern could be his poor 56% tee accuracy with the thick rough expected this week, but PReed probably has a handheld weedwhacker in his bag to help with those situations.  I don’t think anyone would bat an eye if he was priced at $9k, so should be some good value here.

Tyrrell Hatton $8,100 – The $8k range is interesting this week as I think a few guys from here could actually win the tournament.  Hatton has shown he can play well at tough tracks and has 3 top 10’s in his last seven starts.  He’s 8^th on tour in total strokes gained which includes .188 off the tee, .694 on approach, .184 around the green and .365 putting.  He hits fairways at 61.73% and GIR at 69.31% and is 4^th on the tour in birdie or better percentage overall and on par 4’s (12 par 4’s this week).  Hatton’s got great long irons and hits it long enough off the tee at 301+ yards to be able to handle Winged Foot. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,000 – This might be a name you hear a lot heading into this week as Fitzpatrick is one of the best putters in the field and had a solid 6^th place finish at the BMW Championship in his last start.  He gained .411 off the tee and .990 on approach so his ball striking looked great.  On the 2020 season, Fitzpatrick ranked 16^th on tour in total strokes gained which looked like this: .206 SG Tee, .094 SG App, -.113 SG ARG, .88 SG Putting (2^nd to Denny McCarthy on tour in putting).  Fitzpatrick was accurate off the tee at 65% last season, but struggled to turn that into birdies as he ranked outside the top 100 on tour in that category.  The recipe for a good Fitzpatrick week is keeping the ball in the fairway and taking advantage of the elite putting to keep up with the field.

Harris English $7,900 – Harris English had a great 2019-2020 season and I still think he’s a little underpriced here (which may show up on the ownership side).  He made 18 of 20 cuts last year with six top 10 finishes and 14 top 25 finishes, including a runner up at the Northern Trust just three weeks ago.  He was 7^th on tour in total strokes gained including .215 off the tee, .454 on approach, .278 around the green and .518 putting (numbers that put him in rare company this season).  He’s over 300 yards off the tee while hitting fairways at a decent 62% and he’s 9^th on the tour hitting greens in regulation at 71%.  Of course this all means he scores well on most hole types (10^th on par 4’s last season) and he’s 3^rd on the tour at avoiding bogeys.  The U.S. Open hasn’t seen any great finishes for Harris English, but I’m not sure he’s been in such great form heading into one before.

Sebastián Muñoz $6,600 – Some solid names in the $6k’s this week, and I think Munoz is playing as well as any of them.  The 27 year old put together a nice finish to last season finishing 18^th at the Northern Trust, 8^th at the BMW and 8^th at the Tour Championship (keep in mind some of these were smaller fields and no cut events).  At the Tour Championship, he gained .258 off the tee, .727 on approach and .324 putting, finishing 7^th in the field in total strokes gained.  Munoz finished the 2020 season gaining across the board: .218 SG Tee, .308 SG App, .11 SG ARG, .055 SG Putting.  He’s middle of the pack at 60.42% accuracy but hits it over 302 yards per drive which should help on the longer Winged Foot course.  He was 32^nd in birdie or better percentage and 44^th on the tour in bogey avoidance which should help him manage the big numbers this week.

DFS Picks by Tier (DK Pricing)

$10-11k Tier

Jon Rahm $11,000 – Rahm has been playing great lately and looks ready to win his first major. He ranks #2 in our stats this week and is one of the more accurate, long drivers in the field. He’s #4 in the field in birdie or better % and #3 in SG total. He won two events since the restart and they were at two of the tougher courses played. It’ll be interesting to see how ownership plays out between Rahm and DJ but I’ll take Rahm and save $500.

$9k Tier

Tony Finau $9,100 – Tough range here in the 9k with six golfers to choose from. Not sure how much of any of these guys I’ll use but Finau has been playing tough courses well finishing in the top 10 at both the BMW and Memorial. He’s top 10 in the field in birdie or better percentage and top 15 in SG total. He’s got plenty of distance off the tee which I like here but accuracy has been a problem since the restart. Both Webb and Bryson’s key stats look better for this week but I’m favoring longer hitters who have shown good recent form at difficult courses and Bryson has just looked off lately. Webb’s stats put him in the top 3 in our model this week but I just don’t like the course fit. Deki has been struggling with accuracy off the tee and Berger’s combined driving stats rank him 38th in the field despite being top 10 in our combined stat model. Cantlay has struggled since coming back from the break and although I do expect him to turn things around very soon, tough to find data to support playing him at $9,400 this week.

$8k Tier

Tyrell Hatton $8,100 – After a couple rough outings towards the end of July and beginning of August, Hatton bounced back into form with a strong playoff run finishing 25th in Boston, 16th at the BMW and 5th (without starting strokes) at the Tour Championship. Not known for being great off the tee, his combined driving stats put him top 30 in the field. He’s top 10 in the field in birdie or better percentage and top 20 in SG total. His putter was on fire when the tour came back from the break and if there isn’t too many spike marks on the green this week he should gain strokes on the field. Don’t be surprised to see Justin Rose or Matthew Fitzpatrick up on the first or second page of the leaderboard this weekend but I’ll take Hatton.

$7k Tier

Matthew Wolff $7,700 – It’s the season of the Wolff. Morikawa may have made all the headlines but Wolff impressed me down the stretch too. He had strong finishes at the BMW, Memorial, and an impressive 4th place finish at the PGA Championship. He’s shown he can perform in elite fields on difficult tracks. His combined driving stats rank him 11th in the field. He’s top 10 in the field in SG total and top 5 in birdie or better percentage. Wolff is top 10 in the field in putting too. His stats and recent form make him a value down in the $7k range.

$6k Tier

Corey Conners $6,900 – Conners looks like a good play down in the $6k range. He came back from the break and showed some good form. He may not have a top 20 finish recently but he’s finished between 20th-40th in six of eight tournaments this year. We all know Conners can’t putt but we should see a lot of golfers struggling on the green this week. Conners is very accurate off the tee and ranks in the top 10 of our combined driving model this week. He’s top 30 in the field in SG total and in the top half of the field in birdie or better percent. With the cut at 60 golfers this week all you need out of a 6k play is to make the cut. I’ve been a fan of Mack Hughes ($6,900) since the Honda and think he should play well this week coming off an impressive playoffs but the stats have me taking Conners here.

Outright Golf Bets

DFS Head to Head

Daniel Berger $9,200 vs. Tony Finau $9,100

Daniel Berger

U.S. Open History (no course history): 2014 – T28 (+7), 2016 – T37 (+9), 2017 – CUT (+9), 2018 – T6 (+6), 2019 – T49 (+3)

Recent Form: Tour Champ – T15 (-7), BMW – T25 (+6), Northern Trust – 3 (-18), PGA Champ – T13 (-7), WGC St. Jude – T2 (-10)

2019-2020 SG Stats: .366 SG Tee (27^th), .396 SG App (34^th), .271 SG AtG (28^th), .526 SG Putt (17^th)

Other Stats: 63.86% Driving Accuracy (48^th), 300.2 yd/drive (71^st), 24.74% Birdie or Better (8^th)

Tony Finau

U.S. Open History (no course history): 2015 – T14 (+2), 2016 – CUT (+7), 2018 – 5 (+5), 2019 – CUT (+4)

Recent Form: Tour Champ – 17 (-6), BMW – 5 (-1), Northern Trust – CUT (-1), PGA Champ – T4 (-10), WGS St. Jude – T65 (+4)

2019-2020 SG Stats: .341 SG Tee (32^nd), .497 SG App (21^st), .266 SG AtG (30^th), .14 SG Putt (T69th)

Other Stats: 51.79% Driving Accuracy (184^th), 309.8 yd/drive (13^th), 23.92% Birdie or Better (17^th)

The Pick: Daniel Berger – This might be a spot to pivot if ownership for one guy goes through the roof, but tough to argue for Finau based on recent form as Berger has been playing great golf.  I tried to find an angle to pick Finau and just couldn’t do it (unless you think the extra 10 yds/drive average will close the gap).

Xander Schauffele $10,100 vs. Collin Morikawa $10,000

Xander Schauffele (World Rank: 7)

U.S. Open History (no course history): 2017 – T5 (-10), 2018 – T6 (+6), 2019 – T3 (-7)

Recent Form: Tour Champ – T2 (-18), BMW – T25 (+6), Northern Trust – T25 (-11), PGA Champ – T10 (-8), WGC St. Jude – T6 (-9)

2019-2020 SG Stats: .648 SG Tee (8^th), .366 SG App (T37^th), .225 SG AtG (37^th), .366 SG Putt (33^rd)

Other Stats: 60.31% Driving Accuracy (98^th), 305.4 yd/drive (T30th), 23.97% Birdie or Better (15^th)

Collin Morikawa (World Rank: 5)

U.S. Open History (no course history): 2019 – T35 (+1)

Recent Form: Tour Champ – 6 (-13), BMW – T20 (+5), Northern Trust – CUT (+1), PGA Champ – 1 (-13), WGS St. Jude – T20 (-6)

2019-2020 SG Stats: .44 SG Tee (19^th), .884 SG App (2^nd), .005 SG AtG (93^rd), -.099 SG Putt (128th)

Other Stats: 65.54% Driving Accuracy (31^st), 297.3 yd/drive (T97^th), 23.61% Birdie or Better (T21st)

The Pick: Xander Schauffele – Xander has three top 6 finishes at the US Open the last three years, gains more off the tee, and has a better putter than Morikawa.  Morikawa had an unbelievable 2019-2020 but I’m going with the veteran player this week.

Tiger Thoughts

Tiger Woods $8,600 – To kick of the first major of the season, we get Tiger back in the field at $8,600 on Draft Kings and +4000 to win the tournament.  Tiger made the cut in all seven starts last season dating back to the Zozo Championship in October where he finished 1^st at -19.  More recently, he finished T51 at the BMW (+11), T58 at the Northern Trust (-6), 40^th (+6) at the Memorial and 37^th (-1) at the PGA Championship. At the BMW, Tiger lost -.737 off the tee per round but gained a solid .600 on approach and at the Northern Trust he gained .486 per round off the tee and .525 on approach.  So, we know his irons are in great shape which bodes well for this week even if his driver can get a little erratic.  A concern is that he lost -.878 putting per round at the BMW and -.444 at the Northern Trust, but reports did say he’s switching his putter so maybe that will magically fix his issues.  Tiger has won the US Open three times in 2000, 2002 and 2008 but did miss the cut in 2006 when it was held at Winged Foot (but keep in mind his father had past away earlier that year so he was in a rough spot). Tiger can certainly be shaky off the tee, but when strategy comes into play he should have an advantage on the field, let’s just hope these brutal greens don’t eat him up. Keep in mind, Tiger is still ranked 21st in the world and won the Masters last year; he can turn it on when everything’s working and could be a nice play if the ownership doesn’t skyrocket.

Podcast Round-Up

Top Tier $10,000+

DJ, Rahm, JT, Rory, Xander, Morikawa
A lot of talk this week about starting with JT and going down from there. Analysts like the savings you can get over DJ and Rahm to get in another high $9-$10k guy. DJ will still carry ownership and sounds like most are pivoting off Rahm to JT. Most are still willing to play Xander even though he’ll likely be the highest owned golfer this week with his track record in US Opens. Rory is likely to be the lowest owned this week as many don’t believe it’s a good track for him and he still hasn’t looked right.

The Next Tier $9,000-$9,900

Bryson, Webb, Cantlay, Berger, Finau, Deki
Bryson was a popular fade this week since his play has gone downhill since his win at the Rocket Mortgage. Plenty of analysts who like Webb, Berger, Finau and Deki but very few mentions of Cantlay this week and he has struggled since the restart.

The Next Tier $8,000-$8,900

The three most popular plays in this range were Fleetwood, Reed, and Hatton. Fleetwood’s coming off a third place finish this week, Reed is a grinder who seems to be coming into form and Hatton was one of the more impressive golfers in the playoffs. A little love for Fitzpatrick and Hovland and some think Fowler’s history in US Opens makes him a good play at $8,300. Popular fades in this range were Jason Day and Tiger.

The Next Tier $7,000-$7,900

Analysts like the high $7k range this week. Harris English, Matthew Wolff, and Louis Oosthuizen were the most popular in this range. English has been great off the tee recently, Oosty plays well on difficult tracks and Wolff is long and played well on difficult courses. Paul Casey should also be pretty popular down here. Other plays in this range include Todd, Si Woo, and some people ready to go back to Sungjae. Not a lot of love for Woodland this week as the defending champ but he still should carry some ownership.

The Bottom Tier $6,900

As always with this range, not a whole lot of deep analysis here. A few of the names analysts like in this range include Conners, Hughes, Reavie, Pieters, Zalatoris (Korn Ferry Stud), Munoz, and Lanto Griffin round out the flyers.