2020 ZOZO Championship Picks

ZOZO Championshp Analysis (Jump to Section):
Outright Golf Bets | DFS Quick Picks | DFS Picks by Tier | DFS Head to Head Picks | Tournament and Course Preview

We have a 78 man, no-cut event again this week for the Zozo Championship which was moved to Sherwood Country Club for the west coast swing (replacing the Asian Swing). It’s a shorter, par 72 course playing just over 7,000 yards and is unique in the fact there are five par 3’s and five par 4’s. The favorites this week include five guys who played last week as well: Jon Rahm (+1000), Xander Schauffele (+1100), Justin Thomas (+1200), Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Collin Morikawa (+1800).

As a lot of the early reports point out, Tiger Woods (+2500) has won at this course five times and finished 2^nd five times; even if that’s with a 16 or 18-man field as it was in the past.  Dustin Johnson withdrew last week after testing positive for Covid so don’t expect him to be in the field this week, but Tony Finau (+2800) should be back from his Covid-related absence.  Other notables playing this week include Tyrrell Hatton (+2000), Webb Simpson (+2000), Patrick Reed (+2200), Bubba Watson (+2500) and Matthew Wolff (+2800).

Some of the key stats we’ll focus on this week are ball striking, par 5 scoring, accuracy and/or distance and birdie or better percentage.

Outright Golf Bets

Quick Picks (DK Pricing)

Tyrrell Hatton $10,000 – First thing’s first, I think Hatton is a little out of his league at this pricing, but I’m hoping that depresses some of his ownership.  He finished 3^rd last week at the CJ Cup and won the week before on the European Tour (in a very good field).  Last season, Hatton had six top 7 or better finishes on the PGA tour while finishing 8^th on the tour in total strokes gained (4^th overall on approach).  Last week, Hatton’s irons were on fire gaining 2.302 (!) strokes per round and his putter was no slouch either at .838 strokes gained per round.  Hatton has fared well at the no cut events before and I’m ready to jump on board if his ownership is way lower than the guys above him.

Webb Simpson $9,700 – Webb will be popular this week under $10k as he tends to excel on shorter tracks but that doesn’t mean stay away.  He finished 13^th at Shriners a couple weeks ago, 8^th at the US Open in September and finished 5^th at Sherwood Country Club in 2014 so some solid history here.  Over the past six months Webb has the best birdie or better percentage, is one of the most accurate off the tee and does plenty of damage on par 5’s.  Last season, Webb finished 4^th on the tour in total strokes gained tee to green, 6^th in approach and as always is a great putter.

Daniel Berger $8,900 – Berger has cooled off a little bit from his stretch of top 10’s last season, but still has finishes of 28^th last week at the CJ Cup and 34^th at the US Open in September.  Last week, Berger gained 1.083 off the tee and .281 on approach but was bad around the green (-.453 lost) and putting (-.325 lost).  He’s a good enough player that you should expect those poor numbers to rebound this week.  Over the past six months, Berger is one of the top players in the field off the tee and in par 5 scoring.  With Tiger, Wolff and Hovland above him and Kokrak (last week’s winner), English and Bubba below, Berger could be the pivot with high upside.

Brian Harman $7,300 – Harman’s coming off a solid week at the CJ Cup finishing 28^th (-5) with consistent rounds of 71-71-71-70.  Harman was fine across the board gaining .138 strokes per round off the tee, .521 on approach and .902 putting, but really hurt himself losing -.984 around the greens.  The around the green number looks like an outlier as he was top 15 on the tour around the greens last season.  Prior to the CJ Cup, Harman finished 13^th at the Shriners, 37^th at Sanderson Farms and  38^th at the US Open.  Harman should do fine on the shorter course this week (53^rd Driving Accuracy on tour last season), make enough birdies (42^nd on the tour in birdie or better percentage) and avoid bogeys (17^th on tour last year). 

Sebastian Munoz $7,200 – Munoz is probably a pretty safe play at $7,200 after previous finishes of 9^th at CJ Cup, 27^th at Shriners, 23^rd at Sanderson Farms, 59^th at the US Open, 8^th at Tour Champ, 8^th at BMW, and 18^th at Northern Trust (even if a couple of those were smaller fields).  He gained across the board last season in all areas and last week gained .414 per round off the tee, .366 strokes gained on approach, .952 strokes around the green and .344 putting.  Munoz ranked 32^nd on the tour in birdie or better percentage last season along with 43^rd in par 5 scoring.

Kevin Kisner $6,800 – Going right back to Kisner this week after a $700 price drop in a very similar field.  He was terrible day 1 at the CJ Cup with a 77 but figured things out the next three days going 71-67-71 to finish 45^th.  Kisner’s a guy who gained more than half a stroke per round putting last year but last week lost -.350 per round; I just don’t see that happening again this week.  At the end of last season, he had six top 25’s in a row (a few limited fields in there), including a 3^rd at Wyndham and 4^th at Northern Trust in October.  Last year, Kisner was 29^th on tour in total strokes gained (.757), highlighted by his .234 gained on approach (65^th) and .559 putting (15^th).  He’s accurate enough to make up for his length off the tee and avoids bogeys.  At $6,800 he might get some attention but hopefully his poor finish will keep the ownership down.

Tier Picks (DK Pricing)

Jon Rahm 11000

Rahm is the pick in the 10k and above range this week. Jon comes in this week at #2 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #26 in strokes gained on approach and #1 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Rahm also ranks #14 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #2 for par 5 scoring and #3 in the field for driving distance. Rahm had a nice Thursday last week shooting -5 in the opening round but struggled with his putter losing strokes each day of the tournament. After taking some time off he was able to shake off a little rust last week and should be ready to go.

Patrick Reed 9600

Reed is the pick in the 9k range this week. Reed comes in this week at #16 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #38 in strokes gained on approach and #13 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Reed also ranks #33 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #7 for par 5 scoring and #17 in the field for driving distance. Reed is coming off a third place finish in a pretty impressive field at the BMW Championship in England two weeks ago. His form is there and with five reachable par 5’s each day, his around the green game should help him go low this week.

Bubba Watson 8700

Bubba is the pick in the 8k range this week. Watson comes in this week at #6 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #16 in strokes gained on approach and #2 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Bubba also ranks #35 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #34 for par 5 scoring and #4 in the field for driving distance. Bubba’s price tag has slowly began to creep up even in good fields. He finished T7 last week and we’re expecting him to continue his good play this week.

Sebastian Munoz 7200

Munoz is the pick in the 7k range this week. Munoz comes in this week at #10 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #6 in strokes gained on approach and #15 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Munoz also ranks #26 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #27 for par 5 scoring and #36 in the field for driving distance. Munoz has opened the fall swing strong with a T9 last week and two top 27 finishes the previous two weeks. 7200 for the kind of production he’s had recently seems like a bargain.

Tyler Duncan 6500

Duncan is the pick in the 6k range this week. Duncan comes in this week at #28 in our overall stat model. He came in ranking #33 in strokes gained on approach and #25 in the field for strokes gained off the tee. Duncan also ranks #19 in the field for birdie or better percentage, #26 for par 5 scoring and #61 in the field for driving distance. Duncan finished T28 last week in a stacked field but his T34 at the US Open was even more impressive. He’s not long off the tee but has been playing well enough to compete with the longer hitters on tour. Duncan has some upside in this range and worth a flier.

Head to Head Picks

Viktor Hovland $9,200 over Matthew Wolff $9,100

Joaquin Niemann $8,400 over Scottie Scheffler $8,200

Sungjae Im $8,000 over Russell Henley $8,100