The Honda Classic Golf Bets and DFS Picks

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2020 Honda Classic Tee Times and Tournament Coverage

Let’s get back in the winner’s circle this week (Webb and Bubba at Waste Management, Streelman at Pebble Beach, and Dahmen at the Genesis Invitational).  Better in the DFS world than the betting world last week as a few guys dropped down the leaderboard or weren’t able to get into the top 10 on Sunday. 

As noted in our Honda Classic Preview, some of the key stats we’re looking at this week are strokes gained on approach, accuracy off the tee and the ability to minimize big numbers as this course can crush you with a few bad mistakes.  Always helps when a guy has played a course of this difficulty before so course history and current form are important as well.

DFS Pick One From Each Tier (DK Pricing)

$10k+ Tier

Tommy Fleetwood ($11,600) – Not much separates the four guys (Fleetwood, Koepka, Fowler, Woodland) in the top tier this week, so this might be more of a wait and see on the ownership before making your choice. With Koepka slowly getting back into form after a knee injury, Rickie being a fan favorite, and Woodland the cheapest, it seems like Fleetwood may be the one overlooked.  He finished 4th here in 2018; current form looks good (18th, 11th, 2nd last three starts), and he is an elite ball striker.

$9k+ Tier

Shane Lowry ($9,100) –While we don’t have a ton of measured rounds for Lowry this year, what we’ve seen has been great (.443 SG: Tee, and .653 SG: Approach over four rounds).  Lowry has played the Honda Classis twice with finishes of 49th (2018) and 53rd (2016); and he has been playing well in his previous three starts (29th, 13th, 11th).  He avoids bad holes as he’s one of the top guys in PGA’s bogey avoidance stat and after his victory at The Open we know weather will not be an issue.  Looks calm as of now but wind can make this course even more of a beast. (After my Leishman pick last week, I’m wondering if I have a type).

$8k+ Tier

Daniel Berger ($8,900) – This is probably not an ownership play, but more of an underpriced play that might be popular.  Berger has solid course history (3/5 cuts with finishes 36th, 29th, and 2nd) and is clearly playing at a high level with finishes of 5th, 9th, 29th and 38th over his last four starts.  He’s gaining off the tee and slightly on approach, but has been solid scrambling and avoiding bogeys as well.  

$7k+ Tier

Doc Redman ($7,000) –A lot of guys look solid in this $7k tier and this is where you’ll have to make your money this week.  Redman’s ball striking really stands out as he’s gaining .562 off the tee and .58 on approach in 34 measured rounds, putting him 6th in this field at a combined 1.142 SG.  Redman’s putter has been an issue but maybe the switch to Bermuda will be the change he needs.  It’s a little concerning that he hasn’t played the Honda Classic before but there’s something worrisome about every golfer once you get into this range.  He’s accurate off the tee and his proximity stats pop in the 150-200 yard range, which is why we like him here.

$6k+ Tier

Tom Hoge ($6,900) – Hoge has missed the cut the last two times he played at the Honda Classic and finished 37th in 2016.  His scrambling has not been very good and he is not accurate off the tee although he’s still slightly gaining strokes there.  Ok, now that we’ve pointed out why he stinks, let’s look at his .737 SG:Approach in his last 28 rounds.  He is very good with his mid-irons, especially in the 175-200 yard range as he ranks as one of the top in the field in proximity.  His putter has been great, so let’s hope that continues during the Florida swing.

DFS Head to Head Player Picks

Viktor Hovland ($9,500) vs. Sungjae Im ($9,300)

It’s possible you skip both of these guys for a more appealing pick in the high $8k range, but fun to look at Hovland (22 yrs old) coming off his first PGA victory and an even younger Sungjae Im (21 yrs old) coming off last year’s Rookie of the Year award. 

Hovland leads the field in ball striking at 1.477 (.73 SG: Tee; .747 SG: Approach) over 8 measured rounds but has not yet played in the Honda Classic.  Im has also been striking the ball well at .865 SG (.468 SG: Tee; .397 SG: Approach) and made the cut last year in his only start at The Champion Course (51st place finish).  Hovland is coming off a win last week in a less established field and made 2 of 4 cuts prior that.  Im has made 5/6 cuts with a finish of 29th last week.  These guys are close in scrambling (Hovland may need a little work around the green) and bogey avoidance but a little concerned there will be a let down after a week of partying for Hovland plus a new course.

The Pick: Sungjae Im

Ryan Palmer ($8,300) vs. Corey Conners ($8,200)

This is a very interesting price range and I think these guys will be pretty popular.  Ryan Palmer has made the cut in 8 of his last 10 starts at the Honda Classic with three top 25s.  Over his last 21 measured rounds, Palmer is gaining around a half stroke off the tee and gaining a little bit on approach.  Current form is good with finishes of 67th, CUT, 21st, 4th, and 17th over his last four starts.  Corey Conners, on the other hand has only played the course once in 2018 with a finish of 59th.  He’s gaining around .6 strokes off the tee and on approach, which is right near the top in this field (1.226). While Conners had two top 20s a couple months ago, it seems he’s come back down to earth with finishes of 50th, CUT, 45th over his last three starts.  Neither player stands out over the other in scrambling or bogey avoidance with Palmer a little better from the 175-200 yard range. 

The Pick: Ryan Palmer

Lucas Glover ($7,200) vs. Talor Gooch ($7,200)

This is going to be a key range this week as we look to fill in the bottom of our lineups and both of these guys are in the discussion.  Glover’s course history will pop up for everyone as his prior finishes are 4th, 17th, 21st, CUT, CUT, CUT, 4th.  He’s made his last three cuts this year but has not finished higher than 49th. Glover is accurate off the tee but has been losing strokes on approach, which could end your round early on this course (.094 SG off the tee and on approach).  Gooch sticks out more for his current form (-.07 SG: Tee; .083 SG: Approach), with finishes of 10th, 61st, 36th, 17th, 63rd over his last 5 starts (no missed Cuts).  He’s played in the Honda Classic twice, with a 20th place finish last year and a cut the year before that. While Gooch has better recent stats (even if a little inconsistent) in the 150-200 yards proximity numbers and makes less bogeys, this is a spot where I’m sticking with course experience.

The Pick: Lucas Glover

DFS – Initial Thoughts

DFS might be more of a stars and scrubs build this week with hopes of finding that $7k player who gets into contention.  The middle ranges can present some risk/reward as nobody is guaranteed to make the cut at this event.  Once you get past the top few guys (Fleetwood, Brooks, Rickie, Rose), you’ll have to find something to differentiate your lineups.  A few random player thoughts below.

Kurt Kitayama $7300 –A bit inaccurate off the tee but Kitayama’s solid iron play should be a plus in the approach game. He has no course history but has been playing well with finishes of 53rd, 18th, 6th and 34th in his last four starts.

Doc Redman $7000 – Redman gains more than half a stroke off the tee and on approach while avoiding bogeys and his lack of course history may push down his ownership.

Brendan Steele $7100– Steele gains on approach and has a very good course history (3 top 15s last 4 starts with one missed cut).  Two missed cuts in his last two starts is definitely worrisome.

Harris English $7800– Gains more than half a stroke off the tee and on approach, and avoids bogeys like Redman above.  He finished 12th, 33rd and 60th his last three starts at the Honda.

Luke List $8,000– Gains off tee and on approach while his current form is okay with finishes of CUT, 2nd, 52nd, 10th his last four starts. He also has two top tens in his last four starts at the Honda.

Louis Oosthuizen $9700– Maybe he gets looked over in the $9k price range.  Louis has 5 top 25s at the Honda so he is certainly comfortable with the course.

Picks per tier and head to head decisions to follow.

2020 Honda Classic
What the Betting Analysts are Saying

The Elite: Koepka +1200
There’s only one elite golfer in the field this week and he’s still working things out recovering from a knee injury. No suspense needed here, no one is taking Brooks. He hasn’t looked the same since the injury and most analysts aren’t ready to jump back on board.

Brooks won’t be chalky this week and was one of the best golfers in the world last year. He wasn’t in my player pool this week but is a bit more interesting considering the low ownership in a weak field. He made the cut at the Genesis and actually played pretty well on Saturday, a case could be made.

The Next Tier
Aside from Brooks, the top guys in the field this week include Fleetwood, Rickie, Woodland, Horschel, Rose, and Louis. Analysts really like Woodland this week. Cheaper than Fowler and in relatively good form, Woodland is likely to be a popular bet and play this week. Fowler was popular when choosing between he, Fleetwood, and Brooks. Rickie has taken some time off but was in decent form prior and has good course history here including a win in 2017. Horschel was another guy has been playing some really good golf lately and has good course history here with a couple top tens.

Rose hasn’t been great and Louis had an off week last week depite having one of his best putting performances. It’s a weak field, these guys are all going to make it into lineups this week.

The Next Tier
The most common name in this next tier of golfers was Daniel Berger. He’s got two top 10s in his last two starts and has made the cut here the past two years. Sungjae made the cut here last year and had some analysts interested in him this week. Shane Lowry was another name that came up a few times as well. The course could be wet and there should be some wind, nothing Lowry can’t handle.

Other golfers mentioned: J.T. Poston, Harris English, Corey Conners

Long Shots & Punts
Not much analysis here, mainly guys who are playing well who could keep it rolling this weekend: Lee Westwood, Luke List, Maverick McNealy, Russell Knox, Jhonattan Vegas, Bud Cauley, Talor Gooch and Tom Hoge.